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Bob The Magic Custodian



Summary: Everyone knows that when you give your assets to someone else, they always keep them safe. If this is true for individuals, it is certainly true for businesses.
Custodians always tell the truth and manage funds properly. They won't have any interest in taking the assets as an exchange operator would. Auditors tell the truth and can't be misled. That's because organizations that are regulated are incapable of lying and don't make mistakes.

First, some background. Here is a summary of how custodians make us more secure:

Previously, we might give Alice our crypto assets to hold. There were risks:

But "no worries", Alice has a custodian named Bob. Bob is dressed in a nice suit. He knows some politicians. And he drives a Porsche. "So you have nothing to worry about!". And look at all the benefits we get:
See - all problems are solved! All we have to worry about now is:
It's pretty simple. Before we had to trust Alice. Now we only have to trust Alice, Bob, and all the ways in which they communicate. Just think of how much more secure we are!

"On top of that", Bob assures us, "we're using a special wallet structure". Bob shows Alice a diagram. "We've broken the balance up and store it in lots of smaller wallets. That way", he assures her, "a thief can't take it all at once". And he points to a historic case where a large sum was taken "because it was stored in a single wallet... how stupid".
"Very early on, we used to have all the crypto in one wallet", he said, "and then one Christmas a hacker came and took it all. We call him the Grinch. Now we individually wrap each crypto and stick it under a binary search tree. The Grinch has never been back since."

"As well", Bob continues, "even if someone were to get in, we've got insurance. It covers all thefts and even coercion, collusion, and misplaced keys - only subject to the policy terms and conditions." And with that, he pulls out a phone-book sized contract and slams it on the desk with a thud. "Yep", he continues, "we're paying top dollar for one of the best policies in the country!"
"Can I read it?' Alice asks. "Sure," Bob says, "just as soon as our legal team is done with it. They're almost through the first chapter." He pauses, then continues. "And can you believe that sales guy Mike? He has the same year Porsche as me. I mean, what are the odds?"

"Do you use multi-sig?", Alice asks. "Absolutely!" Bob replies. "All our engineers are fully trained in multi-sig. Whenever we want to set up a new wallet, we generate 2 separate keys in an air-gapped process and store them in this proprietary system here. Look, it even requires the biometric signature from one of our team members to initiate any withdrawal." He demonstrates by pressing his thumb into the display. "We use a third-party cloud validation API to match the thumbprint and authorize each withdrawal. The keys are also backed up daily to an off-site third-party."
"Wow that's really impressive," Alice says, "but what if we need access for a withdrawal outside of office hours?" "Well that's no issue", Bob says, "just send us an email, call, or text message and we always have someone on staff to help out. Just another part of our strong commitment to all our customers!"

"What about Proof of Reserve?", Alice asks. "Of course", Bob replies, "though rather than publish any blockchain addresses or signed transaction, for privacy we just do a SHA256 refactoring of the inverse hash modulus for each UTXO nonce and combine the smart contract coefficient consensus in our hyperledger lightning node. But it's really simple to use." He pushes a button and a large green checkmark appears on a screen. "See - the algorithm ran through and reserves are proven."
"Wow", Alice says, "you really know your stuff! And that is easy to use! What about fiat balances?" "Yeah, we have an auditor too", Bob replies, "Been using him for a long time so we have quite a strong relationship going! We have special books we give him every year and he's very efficient! Checks the fiat, crypto, and everything all at once!"

"We used to have a nice offline multi-sig setup we've been using without issue for the past 5 years, but I think we'll move all our funds over to your facility," Alice says. "Awesome", Bob replies, "Thanks so much! This is perfect timing too - my Porsche got a dent on it this morning. We have the paperwork right over here." "Great!", Alice replies.
And with that, Alice gets out her pen and Bob gets the contract. "Don't worry", he says, "you can take your crypto-assets back anytime you like - just subject to our cancellation policy. Our annual management fees are also super low and we don't adjust them often".

How many holes have to exist for your funds to get stolen?
Just one.

Why are we taking a powerful offline multi-sig setup, widely used globally in hundreds of different/lacking regulatory environments with 0 breaches to date, and circumventing it by a demonstrably weak third party layer? And paying a great expense to do so?
If you go through the list of breaches in the past 2 years to highly credible organizations, you go through the list of major corporate frauds (only the ones we know about), you go through the list of all the times platforms have lost funds, you go through the list of times and ways that people have lost their crypto from identity theft, hot wallet exploits, extortion, etc... and then you go through this custodian with a fine-tooth comb and truly believe they have value to add far beyond what you could, sticking your funds in a wallet (or set of wallets) they control exclusively is the absolute worst possible way to take advantage of that security.

The best way to add security for crypto-assets is to make a stronger multi-sig. With one custodian, what you are doing is giving them your cryptocurrency and hoping they're honest, competent, and flawlessly secure. It's no different than storing it on a really secure exchange. Maybe the insurance will cover you. Didn't work for Bitpay in 2015. Didn't work for Yapizon in 2017. Insurance has never paid a claim in the entire history of cryptocurrency. But maybe you'll get lucky. Maybe your exact scenario will buck the trend and be what they're willing to cover. After the large deductible and hopefully without a long and expensive court battle.

And you want to advertise this increase in risk, the lapse of judgement, an accident waiting to happen, as though it's some kind of benefit to customers ("Free institutional-grade storage for your digital assets.")? And then some people are writing to the OSC that custodians should be mandatory for all funds on every exchange platform? That this somehow will make Canadians as a whole more secure or better protected compared with standard air-gapped multi-sig? On what planet?

Most of the problems in Canada stemmed from one thing - a lack of transparency. If Canadians had known what a joke Quadriga was - it wouldn't have grown to lose $400m from hard-working Canadians from coast to coast to coast. And Gerald Cotten would be in jail, not wherever he is now (at best, rotting peacefully). EZ-BTC and mister Dave Smilie would have been a tiny little scam to his friends, not a multi-million dollar fraud. Einstein would have got their act together or been shut down BEFORE losing millions and millions more in people's funds generously donated to criminals. MapleChange wouldn't have even been a thing. And maybe we'd know a little more about CoinTradeNewNote - like how much was lost in there. Almost all of the major losses with cryptocurrency exchanges involve deception with unbacked funds.
So it's great to see transparency reports from BitBuy and ShakePay where someone independently verified the backing. The only thing we don't have is:
It's not complicated to validate cryptocurrency assets. They need to exist, they need to be spendable, and they need to cover the total balances. There are plenty of credible people and firms across the country that have the capacity to reasonably perform this validation. Having more frequent checks by different, independent, parties who publish transparent reports is far more valuable than an annual check by a single "more credible/official" party who does the exact same basic checks and may or may not publish anything. Here's an example set of requirements that could be mandated:
There are ways to structure audits such that neither crypto assets nor customer information are ever put at risk, and both can still be properly validated and publicly verifiable. There are also ways to structure audits such that they are completely reasonable for small platforms and don't inhibit innovation in any way. By making the process as reasonable as possible, we can completely eliminate any reason/excuse that an honest platform would have for not being audited. That is arguable far more important than any incremental improvement we might get from mandating "the best of the best" accountants. Right now we have nothing mandated and tons of Canadians using offshore exchanges with no oversight whatsoever.

Transparency does not prove crypto assets are safe. CoinTradeNewNote, Flexcoin ($600k), and Canadian Bitcoins ($100k) are examples where crypto-assets were breached from platforms in Canada. All of them were online wallets and used no multi-sig as far as any records show. This is consistent with what we see globally - air-gapped multi-sig wallets have an impeccable record, while other schemes tend to suffer breach after breach. We don't actually know how much CoinTrader lost because there was no visibility. Rather than publishing details of what happened, the co-founder of CoinTrader silently moved on to found another platform - the "most trusted way to buy and sell crypto" - a site that has no information whatsoever (that I could find) on the storage practices and a FAQ advising that “[t]rading cryptocurrency is completely safe” and that having your own wallet is “entirely up to you! You can certainly keep cryptocurrency, or fiat, or both, on the app.” Doesn't sound like much was learned here, which is really sad to see.
It's not that complicated or unreasonable to set up a proper hardware wallet. Multi-sig can be learned in a single course. Something the equivalent complexity of a driver's license test could prevent all the cold storage exploits we've seen to date - even globally. Platform operators have a key advantage in detecting and preventing fraud - they know their customers far better than any custodian ever would. The best job that custodians can do is to find high integrity individuals and train them to form even better wallet signatories. Rather than mandating that all platforms expose themselves to arbitrary third party risks, regulations should center around ensuring that all signatories are background-checked, properly trained, and using proper procedures. We also need to make sure that signatories are empowered with rights and responsibilities to reject and report fraud. They need to know that they can safely challenge and delay a transaction - even if it turns out they made a mistake. We need to have an environment where mistakes are brought to the surface and dealt with. Not one where firms and people feel the need to hide what happened. In addition to a knowledge-based test, an auditor can privately interview each signatory to make sure they're not in coercive situations, and we should make sure they can freely and anonymously report any issues without threat of retaliation.
A proper multi-sig has each signature held by a separate person and is governed by policies and mutual decisions instead of a hierarchy. It includes at least one redundant signature. For best results, 3of4, 3of5, 3of6, 4of5, 4of6, 4of7, 5of6, or 5of7.

History has demonstrated over and over again the risk of hot wallets even to highly credible organizations. Nonetheless, many platforms have hot wallets for convenience. While such losses are generally compensated by platforms without issue (for example Poloniex, Bitstamp, Bitfinex, Gatecoin, Coincheck, Bithumb, Zaif, CoinBene, Binance, Bitrue, Bitpoint, Upbit, VinDAX, and now KuCoin), the public tends to focus more on cases that didn't end well. Regardless of what systems are employed, there is always some level of risk. For that reason, most members of the public would prefer to see third party insurance.
Rather than trying to convince third party profit-seekers to provide comprehensive insurance and then relying on an expensive and slow legal system to enforce against whatever legal loopholes they manage to find each and every time something goes wrong, insurance could be run through multiple exchange operators and regulators, with the shared interest of having a reputable industry, keeping costs down, and taking care of Canadians. For example, a 4 of 7 multi-sig insurance fund held between 5 independent exchange operators and 2 regulatory bodies. All Canadian exchanges could pay premiums at a set rate based on their needed coverage, with a higher price paid for hot wallet coverage (anything not an air-gapped multi-sig cold wallet). Such a model would be much cheaper to manage, offer better coverage, and be much more reliable to payout when needed. The kind of coverage you could have under this model is unheard of. You could even create something like the CDIC to protect Canadians who get their trading accounts hacked if they can sufficiently prove the loss is legitimate. In cases of fraud, gross negligence, or insolvency, the fund can be used to pay affected users directly (utilizing the last transparent balance report in the worst case), something which private insurance would never touch. While it's recommended to have official policies for coverage, a model where members vote would fully cover edge cases. (Could be similar to the Supreme Court where justices vote based on case law.)
Such a model could fully protect all Canadians across all platforms. You can have a fiat coverage governed by legal agreements, and crypto-asset coverage governed by both multi-sig and legal agreements. It could be practical, affordable, and inclusive.

Now, we are at a crossroads. We can happily give up our freedom, our innovation, and our money. We can pay hefty expenses to auditors, lawyers, and regulators year after year (and make no mistake - this cost will grow to many millions or even billions as the industry grows - and it will be borne by all Canadians on every platform because platforms are not going to eat up these costs at a loss). We can make it nearly impossible for any new platform to enter the marketplace, forcing Canadians to use the same stagnant platforms year after year. We can centralize and consolidate the entire industry into 2 or 3 big players and have everyone else fail (possibly to heavy losses of users of those platforms). And when a flawed security model doesn't work and gets breached, we can make it even more complicated with even more people in suits making big money doing the job that blockchain was supposed to do in the first place. We can build a system which is so intertwined and dependent on big government, traditional finance, and central bankers that it's future depends entirely on that of the fiat system, of fractional banking, and of government bail-outs. If we choose this path, as history has shown us over and over again, we can not go back, save for revolution. Our children and grandchildren will still be paying the consequences of what we decided today.
Or, we can find solutions that work. We can maintain an open and innovative environment while making the adjustments we need to make to fully protect Canadian investors and cryptocurrency users, giving easy and affordable access to cryptocurrency for all Canadians on the platform of their choice, and creating an environment in which entrepreneurs and problem solvers can bring those solutions forward easily. None of the above precludes innovation in any way, or adds any unreasonable cost - and these three policies would demonstrably eliminate or resolve all 109 historic cases as studied here - that's every single case researched so far going back to 2011. It includes every loss that was studied so far not just in Canada but globally as well.
Unfortunately, finding answers is the least challenging part. Far more challenging is to get platform operators and regulators to agree on anything. My last post got no response whatsoever, and while the OSC has told me they're happy for industry feedback, I believe my opinion alone is fairly meaningless. This takes the whole community working together to solve. So please let me know your thoughts. Please take the time to upvote and share this with people. Please - let's get this solved and not leave it up to other people to do.

Facts/background/sources (skip if you like):



Thoughts?
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morning joe

Stocks are set to end the week on a high note after four of the biggest tech stocks - Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) and Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) - reported quarterly results that beat high expectations. Apple easily exceeded estimates on the top and bottom lines, and announced a four-for-one stock split, sending shares past the $400 threshold in after-hours trading. Amazon's sales soared, and operating income nearly doubled compared with the big drop analysts had expected. Facebook posted 11% revenue growth and issued stronger-than-expected sales guidance for the current quarter. Results from Google's parent were a bit murkier, showing the company's first-ever year-over-year decline in advertising revenue, but sales from its cloud-computing segment came in well above expectations. Big Tech has been Wall Street's mainstay this year, and the latest quarterly results look to accelerate that trend. Amazon and Apple are up 65% and 31%, respectively, in 2020, while Facebook and Alphabet each have gained more than 14% over the period. With all four stocks moving higher in after-hours trading, the tech titans likely will add more than $200 billion to their combined market value.
U.S. economy shrank by a third in Q2
The Commerce Department said U.S. gross domestic product collapsed at a 32.9% annualized rate in the second quarter, the steepest decline since the government started keeping records in 1947, as COVID-19 crushed consumer and business spending. Meanwhile, in a sign of a faltering jobs market, the number of workers applying for initial unemployment benefits rose for the second straight week, to 1.43 million, after nearly four months of decreases following a late-March peak. The Q2 economic contraction came as states imposed lockdowns in March and April to contain the coronavirus and then lifted restrictions in May and June, allowing growth to resume. Economists expect the third quarter to show growth, but the summer rise in infections likely will temper gains.
Senate fails to advance jobless benefits extension
Meanwhile, no signs of progress are evident in talks between Republicans and Democrats over a new coronavirus relief bill. The U.S. Senate failed yesterday to advance an effort to extend a $200 per week supplement to unemployment insurance benefits. Senate Republicans and the White House had sought to cut the supplement from $600 through September, after which those collecting unemployment benefits would get 70% of their previous wages when combined with state benefits. While much of the focus has been on the expiration of the additional $600-per-week of unemployment benefits, an eviction moratorium is receiving increasing attention as well.
China factory activity expands for fifth straight month
China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers' index came in better than expected, rising to 51.1 in July from 50.9 in June for its highest reading since March. July marked the fifth consecutive month that the closely watched measure of China's factory activity topped the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction. Combined with China's official non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index, which indicated a slight deceleration in the service sector, the data suggests China's factories have returned to pre-coronavirus levels but consumer demand remains much weaker, which means inventory is piling up.
Chinese-backed hackers reportedly targeted Moderna for vaccine data
China rejects charges that hackers linked to its government targeted Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) to steal data related to research on a coronavirus vaccine. Citing an unnamed U.S. security official, Reuters reported yesterday that Chinese hackers targeted the U.S. biotech firm earlier this year. Moderna said it had been in contact with the FBI and was made aware of the suspected "information reconnaissance activities" by a hacking group mentioned in last week's Justice Department indictment, where two Chinese nationals were accused of spying on the U.S., including three unnamed U.S.-based targets involved in medical research to fight COVID-19. The two other unnamed medical research companies mentioned in the Justice Department indictment are described as biotech companies based in California and Maryland - descriptions that could fit Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ:GILD) and Novavax (NASDAQ:NVAX). Go deeper: J&J (NYSE:JNJ) COVID-19 vaccine candidate shows positive effect in primate study.
Amazon's $10 billion Internet satellite plan wins FCC approval
While overshadowed by the company's earnings, Amazon.com's (AMZN) tech ambitions got a boost as the FCC approved its $10B plan to put thousands of satellites in the sky to provide high-speed Internet to unserved and underserved areas. The company's Project Kuiper - using 3,200 low Earth orbit satellites - would compete in that area with the Starlink project at SpaceX (SPACE).
Australia to force Google, Facebook to pay for news
Australia will become the first country in the world to force Facebook (FB) and Google (GOOG, GOOGL) to pay publishers for the news content featured on its sites. It will give the companies three months to negotiate fair pay with media businesses there, a move to ensure competition and consumer protection as well as a sustainable media landscape. Other companies are likely to be targeted for similar moves by Australia's government later.
U.K. fraud office charges Airbus subsidiary over Saudi deal
The U.K.'s major economic crimes investigator has charged Airbus' (OTCPK:EADSY) subsidiary GPT Special Project Management and three individuals in connection with a defense contract the country arranged with Saudi Arabia. Airbus says the Serious Fraud Office's investigation related to contractual arrangements that predated its acquisition of the subsidiary. The charges represent a step forward in one of the SFO's most politically sensitive probes, which has been viewed as a potential threat to the U.K.'s relationship with the Saudis. Go deeper: Airbus works to slow cash burn, puts brakes on production.
What else is happening...
Walmart (NYSE:WMT) memo points to cutting jobs in 'streamlining.'
Facebook (FB) finally securing rights to show music videos.
Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) account breach involved phone-based phishing attacks on employees.
Thursday's Key Earnings Apple (AAPL) +6.3% PM on strong earnings, stock split. Amazon (AMZN) +5.5% PM on strong Q2 earnings, Q3 guidance. Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG) flat PM after soft ad revenue. Facebook (FB) +5.9 PM on strong earnings, user growth. Ford Motor (NYSE:F) +2.5% PM despite seeing weak FY demand. Gilead Sciences (GILD) -3.6% PM as pandemic disrupts earnings. US Steel (NYSE:X) flat PM after Q2 loss, upbeat Q3 guidance. Electronic Arts (NASDAQ:EA) flat PM after Q2 beat, better-than-expected FY guidance. LTC Properties (NYSE:LTC) -3.2% AH as Q2 rental revenue takes a hit. Xilinx (NASDAQ:XLNX) -2.7% PM on in-line Q2, outlook. Stryker (NYSE:SYK) -2.8% AH despite Q2 beat. Vertex Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:VRTX) +1% AH on robust Q2 Trikafta sales. OPKO Health (NASDAQ:OPK) -6% PM after healthy Q2 earnings. Atlassian (NASDAQ:TEAM) -7% PM on FQ4 customer weakness, downside EPS forecast. Exact Sciences (NASDAQ:EXAS) -3% AH on pandemic disrupting Q2 revenue. Expedia (NASDAQ:EXPE) -6% PM after massive Q2 bookings dip. Seattle Genetics (NASDAQ:SGEN) -2% AH despite Q2 beat. Cabot Oil & Gas (NYSE:COG) flat PM after Q2 beat, unchanged guidance. XPO Logistics (NYSE:XPO) -4% AH on weak Q2 shipping metrics. Shake Shack (NYSE:SHAK) -4.8% AH on Q2 miss, pulled Q3 guidance.
Today's Markets In Asia, Japan -2.82%. Hong Kong -0.47%. China +0.71%. India -0.26%. In Europe, at midday, London -0.17%. Paris +0.01%. Frankfurt +0.27%. Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.13%. S&P +0.19%. Nasdaq +0.84%. Crude +0.45% to $40.05. Gold +1.48% to $1,995.90. Bitcoin +1.83% to $11,161. Ten-year Treasury Yield -1.3 bps to 0.53%
Today's Economic Calendar 8:30 Personal Income and Outlays 8:30 Employment Cost Index 9:45 Chicago PMI 10:00 Consumer Sentiment 1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count 3:00 PM Farm Prices
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morning coffee

More Wall Street Breakfast Podcasts » "Despite several issues of importance - national riots, Chinese relations, an ongoing pandemic - the stock market is primarily focused on a single thing: the restart of U.S. and global economic activities," said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group. The sentiment led S&P 500 futures to tack on another 0.6% gain overnight as Dr. Anthony Fauci expressed renewed "optimism" about a coronavirus vaccine. On the economic calendar, the ADP Employment Report today will give a fresh read on the extent of the COVID-19 pandemic, while oil climbed 2% on anticipated output cuts at the upcoming OPEC+ meeting.
Come on and Zoom!
A surge in video conferencing usage saw revenue growth at Zoom (NASDAQ:ZM) jump 169% to $328.2M as the company reported top and bottom line beats for Q1. Zoom also doubled its revenue guidance for the year, pushing up shares as much as 4.5% in AH trading on Tuesday. In keeping with its previous practices, the firm didn't disclose active user numbers, though analysts at Bernstein estimate Zoom's mobile app had 173M monthly active users as of May 27, up from 14M on March 4.
Zuckerberg stands firm after walkout
Facing internal unrest over the company's gentle approach to moderating posts from President Trump, Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) CEO Mark Zuckerberg told employees he stood behind his decision, one he called "tough" but "pretty thorough." Policies will be reviewed to see if they need to change for the future. Facebook employees particularly took issue with a post by Trump that threatened violence, including the words "when the looting starts, the shooting starts." Similar posts on Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) were flagged for violating policy.
Apple is tracking looted iPhones
Thieves who made off with iPhones from Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) retail locations in New York, Los Angeles, Minneapolis, Washington and Philadelphia quickly learned that they were loaded with special security software. On-screen messages displayed: "This device has been disabled and is being tracked. Local authorities will be alerted." The social unrest sweeping across the nation comes just as Apple is in the process of opening more than 100 stores following an extended closure due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Digital taxes
The Trump administration is opening a "Section 301" investigation into taxes on digital commerce - proposed by a range of trading partners - that could affect revenues booked by tech giants like Facebook (FB), Google (GOOG, GOOGL) and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN). The move could ultimately lead to punitive tariffs and heighten the chances of another global trade dispute. France already agreed to postpone its new digital tax until at least the end of 2020 after the U.S. threatened to impose tariffs of up to 100% on imports like French wine, cheese, handbags and porcelain.
Will negative rates be needed?
Many have doubted that the U.S. could go negative like Japan and parts of Europe, but St. Louis Fed economist Yi Wen says that's what it would take to achieve a V-shaped economic recovery. "I found that a combination of aggressive fiscal and monetary policies is necessary. Aggressive policy means that the U.S. will need to consider negative interest rates and aggressive government spending, such as spending on infrastructure." Wen cited historical examples like President Roosevelt's aggressive fiscal stimulus package during the 1930s and huge surge in government spending once World War II began.
Britain news roundup
The Shanghai-London Connect program, years in the making, has so far produced only one listing - Huatai Securities (OTCPK:HUATF) - which raised $1.5B last June. China's market regulator has now approved a fresh listing for China Pacific Insurance (OTCPK:CHPXY), signaling a revival of the program. While the ties could bring the nations closer, other news overnight may go in the other direction. Boris Johnson pledged to let into the country nearly 3M Hong Kong citizens - who are British overseas passport holders - due to China's new national security law, and place them on a possible path to U.K. citizenship.
Drug shortages
One of the most widely prescribed antidepressant medications in the U.S. has fallen into short supply, according to a new list from the FDA. Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) said some versions of its name-brand Zoloft, such as 100 milligram tablets in 100-count bottles, were scarce because of higher demand during COVID-19, while generics faced shortages of certain ingredients. Zoloft prescriptions climbed 12% Y/Y to 4.9M in March, the most ever in the U.S., according to data compiled by Bloomberg, but receded to 4.5M in April.
M&A activity
French luxury goods group LVMH’s (OTCPK:LVMHF) $16.2B takeover of Tiffany & Co (NYSE:TIF) is looking less certain, according to Women's Wear Daily. It's the latest big merger said to be on the rocks amid a deteriorating situation in the U.S. market brought on by a COVID-19 pandemic and severe social unrest. Further challenges include spending pattern shifts, the collapse of international tourism and trade tensions between Washington and Beijing.
'Biggest Sale in the Sky'
After postponing its annual Prime Day event due to COVID-19, Amazon (AMZN) is reportedly setting up a "summer sale" for June to boost sellers hurt by the outbreak and swimming in inventory. The company told brands it would launch a fashion sale June 22, to run anywhere from 7-10 days, and that participation in the event was "invitation only." It's building landing pages with a working title "Biggest Sale in the Sky," and has asked brands to meet an end-of-Wednesday deadline to submit deals with a discount of at least 30%.
What else is happening...
Sports betting to the rescue in California?
Twitter (TWTR) names Pichette as new independent chairman.
Google (GOOG, GOOGL) faces $5B lawsuit over 'private' internet use.
FAA boss to testify at Senate hearing on 737 MAX (NYSE:BA).
Lyft (NASDAQ:LYFT) trims loss forecast after May rides jumped 26%.
Tuesday's Key Earnings Ambarella (NASDAQ:AMBA) -3.7% AH on light revenue guidance. CrowdStrike (NASDAQ:CRWD) +6.2% AH following a beat-and-raise. DICK'S Sporting Goods (NYSE:DKS) +3.7% as e-commerce sales rose 110%. Zoom Video (ZM) +1.4% AH posting Q1 beat, aggressive outlook.
Today's Markets In Asia, Japan +1.3%. Hong Kong +1.4%. China +0.1%. India +0.6%. In Europe, at midday, London +1.5%. Paris +2%. Frankfurt +2.2%. Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.8%. S&P +0.6%. Nasdaq +0.5%. Crude +1.7% to $37.43. Gold -0.6% to $1724.40. Bitcoin -5.6% to $9527. Ten-year Treasury Yield +3 bps to 0.71%
Today's Economic Calendar Auto Sales 7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications 8:15 ADP Jobs Report 9:45 PMI Services Index 10:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 10:00 Factory Orders
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Bitcoin Breaks U.S. Stocks Correlation Amid Failed COVID-19 Medicines

Bitcoin Breaks U.S. Stocks Correlation Amid Failed COVID-19 Medicines

Bitcoin Skyrocketed Past $7,500, While The Stock Market Took Another Substantial Hit
Bitcoin and the world of stocks had a pronounced price correlation during the whole month of March. Some of the crypto experts even claimed Bitcoin to have “failed to serve as a safe haven asset like gold.” Bitcoin’s behavior, like a risk-on asset, followed the price swings of major US indices precisely. The latest pump came shortly after the Federal Reserve announcing $2 trillion in stimulus packages.
However, the trend finally has been broken, as Bitcoin passed the critical $7,500 resistance level on trading at $7,525.63 as of press time.

Source: TradingView; Coinbase
Meanwhile, the stock market suffered from yet another downward spiral. DOW managed to stay at a mere 0.2 percent upwards momentum, while Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 fell with one percent.
The primary reason for the correction in U.S. indices is Financial Times (FT) reporting Gilead Sciences failed in the tests of their antiviral Remdesivir COVID-19 drug. The drug failed clinical trials. The information, according to the FT, came from a leaked Gilead Report to the World Health Organization.
Investors hoped that а successful vaccine trial would allow the global economy to bounce back to life and form a v-shaped pattern. However, experts consider the stimulus relief packages by the U.S. government are only artificially pumping the numbers. Also, the results from the stimulus pump may pop every moment, while the healthcare crisis intensifies.
However, Bitcoin’s upwards price movement, acting against the stock market, regained some of the trust BTC being a security asset. Global trader Joel Kruger published an animation, showing BTC’s definite price increase, which correlates with traditional haven assets such as Gold. However, Gold didn’t perform as well as BTC.
Another possible reason behind Bitcoin’s peak is researcher Mike Glone’s report on Bloomberg. Glone emphasized on Bitcoin and Gold being into a strong bullish run. He even claimed that “2020 would confirm Bitcoin transforming from a risk asset to a safe haven asset.”
Also, the correlation breakage may be due to the Bitcoin world preparing to undergo its third halving procedure. The mining reward cut is scheduled for block 690,000, which, according to estimations, would occur in mid-May 2020. Some analysts are on the opinion that the supply rate cut would boost Bitcoin’s price to over $100,000 by 2021.
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End of day summary - 08/12

The Dow fell 391.00, or 1.49%, to 25,896.44, the Nasdaq lost 95.73, or 1.2%, to 7,863.41, and the S&P 500 declined 35.95, or 1.23%, to 2,882.70.
The stock market fell more than 1% on Monday, as uncertainties about the global economy continued to push investors away from risk assets and into safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries and gold. The S&P 500 fell 1.2%, which was comparable to the declines in the Nasdaq Composite (-1.2%) and Russell 2000 (-1.2%). The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.5%.
U.S. corporate and economic news was sparse on Monday, which helped attention focus on the government protests in Hong Kong, the political instability in Italy and Argentina, and the lack of improvement in U.S.-China trade relations. Economists from Goldman Sachs added to the sour mood, stating that they are not expecting a U.S.-China trade deal before the 2020 presidential election.
In other words, Monday featured plenty of negative-minded speculation, although it was understandable given the amount of negative developments around the world and the lack of good news. Perhaps the most startling development in the capital markets was the persistent decline, and compression, in U.S. Treasury yields.
This compression in yields not only hit investor sentiment but was also affected the S&P 500 financials sector (-1.9%), which led all 11 S&P 500 sectors in losses. Banks typically rely on healthy net interest margins to boost profit and facilitate lending activity. The other rate-sensitive sectors -- real estate (-0.3%) and utilities (-0.3%) -- outperformed but still finished lower.
An inversion of the 2-10 spread is widely viewed as a recession indicator, although an inversion does not necessarily predict one.
Markets in Argentina were reeling on Monday after President Mauricio Macri, who is known for being pro-business, lost a primary election on Sunday. Argentina's peso had weakened about 25% against the dollar in early trading amid investor concerns about the potential return to power of Argentina's Peronist movement under Alberto Fernandez and his running mate, former president Cristina Kirchner. Fernandez has pledged to undo many of Macri's market-friendly policies and the surprising primary results has been followed by sharp slides for many stocks linked to Argentina that trade in New York, including MercadoLibre (MELI), Banco Macro (BMA), Despegar.com (DESP), Grupo Financiero Galicia (GGAL), Loma Negra (LOMA), Pampa Energia (PAM), Telecom Argentina (TEO), YPF (YPF) and Arcos Dorados (ARCO).
Among the notable gainers was ROKU, after Needam analyst Laura Martin raised its price target to $150 saying Netflix “has the most to lose. Also higher was AMGN, which gained 6% after a United States District Court judge in New Jersey ruled on Friday in the company's favor in a patent fight with NVS. Shares of MU were on the rise in late trading on Monday as the company's CFO said that "demand has come back".
Meanwhile, CPB was in focus after Sky News reported that Valeo Foods Group is in advanced talks to acquire Campbell's Kettle Foods operations in the U.K. and Ireland. The deal, which could be reached in the coming days, is expected to be worth more than GBP50M, according to Sky. The news comes after Campbell Soup announced earlier this month that it signed an agreement to sell Arnott's and other international operations to KKR for $2.2B in cash.
Additionally, New York Attorney General Letitia James said via Twitter that Oregon has joined her state's lawsuit to block the merger of TMUS and S. James added in the tweet that the coalition involved in the suit includes 16 states. A New York AG spokesperson told Dealreporter last week that the office was in talks with a "handful" of other states that were considering whether to sign onto the lawsuit.
In Asia overnight, stocks were mostly higher, with the China CSI 300 rising 1.8%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 added 0.4%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HSI meanwhile lost 0.4%. European stocks were trading lower Monday, down 0.2%, as measured by the Stoxx Europe 600.

Currency

The U.S. dollar index was roughly flat on Monday and sterling and the euro saw a modest rise as the foreign exchange market fell into an August lull, a traditionally quiet trading period with many investors and traders on vacation.

Treasury

U.S. Treasuries spent the Monday session in a steady advance, pressuring the 30-yr yield to a fresh low for the year while the 10-yr yield approached its low from last week. The daylong rally was not fueled by a particular news catalyst but was rather a function of disappointment over the lack of an improvement in the official relationship between China and the United States.
The spread between the 2-yr and 10-yr yields narrowed to six basis points, as demand for longer-dated tenors continued to climb amid growth concerns. The 2-yr yield fell five basis points to 1.58%, and the 10-yr yield fell ten basis points to 1.64%. The U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.1% to 97.43.

Commodity

Oil prices rose on Monday despite worries about a global economic slowdown and the ongoing U.S.-China trade war, which has reduced demand for commodities such as crude.
Corn and soybean futures both fell sharply Monday after the U.S. Department of Agriculture's August production estimates projected larger-than-expected crops following an extremely wet spring that severely delayed corn planting, followed by dry conditions across much of the Midwest. Corn for December delivery CZ19 on the Chicago Board of trade fell 25 cents to $3.9275 a bushel, a decline of 6%. November soybeans SX19 dropped 11.5 cents, or 1.3%, to $8.8075 a bushel. The report estimated that U.S. farmers would produce 13.9 billion bushels of corn, down 4% from last year but larger than analysts had expected. Soybean production is forecast to fall 19% from last year to 3.68 billion bushels.

Crypto

YTD

  • Nas +18.5%
  • Spoos +15.0%
  • Rusell +10.8%
  • Old Man +11.0%

What's tomorrow?

  • Investors will receive the Consumer Price Index for July on Tuesday.
Summary scraped from the interweb. Took 0.11 seconds.
submitted by hibernating_brain to thewallstreet [link] [comments]

The Road to USD 25K is 'Easy': Double Bitcoin Users, says Tom Lee

The Road to USD 25K is 'Easy': Double Bitcoin Users, says Tom Lee
To hit USD 25,000 per bitcoin (BTC), we need to find a way to double the current number of active BTC users, according to co-founder and the Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, Tom Lee.
https://preview.redd.it/e5lv2t0feuy31.jpg?width=678&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e11f8363e9de63e2d2b52cffd77e7d4271fed95b
In an interview with CNBC today, Lee argued that BTC will hit USD 25,000 by 2022, which is the number Fundstrat established two years ago as a five-year view for the coin. “It’s quite easy to achieve,” says the analyst. According to the company’s estimates, today less than half a million people "own and use bitcoin widely today," and if that number turns into a million, the price will get to USD 25,000.
"Cryptocurrencies are network value assets, meaning, the more people that hold it, the greater the value. In fact, it’s a log function, right? So if you double the users, you get a quadrupling of value. And to go to USD 25,000, you essentially need a 4x rise – a little bit less than that – which means you need to double the number of people who hold bitcoin,” Lee explained.
https://preview.redd.it/qgkojq1geuy31.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=fd361515810369a056c32b9ef076f0c20fb37997
Meanwhile, European digital asset management company, CoinShares Group, in their recent report estimated that, a year ago, at least 139 million user accounts have been created at crypto service providers, representing an estimated minimum of 35 million ID-verified users.
In either case, Lee said that the long-term future of Bitcoin is “very bullish.” It’s the early days for digital assets, he explains, and over time it will become institutional and an asset class. “Once we hit that,” says Lee, “it’s actually another hockey stick [-like price rise].”
He explained that what we’re seeing here is a log / utility function, and as an example for comparison he took the price return of the FAANG (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, and Google) stocks since their IPOs (initial public offerings). “70% of the return is explained by the growth of the global internet in that period of time,” he says, concluding that “it was a log function of the internet’s growth, and that’s how cryptocurrencies are going to work.”
Meanwhile, anonymous investor and Twitter user Plan₿, known for his insights into the stock-to-flow ratio, said recently that that the exponential growth in bitcoin's price will continue, and that it will be fueled by BTC’s scarcity dynamics. "Before Christmas 2021, Bitcoin should be, or should have been, above USD 100 K; if not, then all bets are off and it [the stock-to-flow model] probably breaks down."
Furthermore, Lee said back in June that BTC is just at the beginning of its bull run, that it will easily surpass its all-time-high, and that it can reach as high as USD 40,000 in an unspecified future. In another interview, he also stated that if equities rise, bitcoin will follow – and all-time-highs may be coming soon.
submitted by dwoinik to u/dwoinik [link] [comments]

The total computing power now dedicated to securing the bitcoin blockchain has set yet another record.

According to data from mining services operator BTC.com, the average bitcoin mining hash rate over the last two weeks has reached 71.43 quintillion hashes per second (EH/s), up from 64.49EH/s on July 23. The threshold was breached as bitcoin adjusted its mining difficulty at block height 586,672 on Monday 2:52 UTC – that is a 6.94EH/s, or 10.78 percent jump since mid July.
Bitcoin mining difficulty is a measure of how hard it is to compete for mining rewards on bitcoin. Just how difficult the bitcoin software makes it to generate new blocks adjusts every 2,016 blocks – approximately every 14 days – to ensure the block production time remains about 10 minutes at the next cycle.
Assume this additional 6.9EH/s (or 6.9 million tera hashes per second, TH/s) computing power has all come from powerful ASIC miners, such as Bitmain’s AntMiner S17 or MicroBT’s WhatsMiner M20S, both of which boast a mining rate of around 55TH/s and recently hit the market.
That means more than 100,000 top-of-line ASIC miners could have been switched on within the past two weeks. Further, given these products have been sold for at least $2,000 each, this equates to some $200 million in revenue pocketed for major miner makers.
The continued interest in bitcoin mining comes at a time when the cryptocurrency’s price appears to be en route to challenging all-time highs, however distantly, and amid the arrival of the rainy season in China, which leads to cheaper hydropower electricity costs in the country’s southwest provinces – a region that is reported to account for 50 percent of the global mining activity,
Miners in China estimated earlier this year that bitcoin’s hash rate in the summer would break the level of 70EH/s. To be clear, at several single points of time, bitcoin’s hash rate had already crossed that level in June and even reached 80EH/s around Aug. 1.
However, today marks the first time that the two-week average computing power has been able to remain above the 70EH/s threshold. As such, bitcoin’s mining difficulty has also set a new record of nearly 10 trillion.

Market change

Amidst this uptick in mining interest, there have been notable changes in the mining market, where top manufacturers are racing to produce more powerful equipment.
For instance, in Bitmain’s 2018 initial public offering prospectus, the Beijing-based mining giant claimed it had a 70 percent market dominance. Now, it may be facing serious competition from rival players that some believe are capable of shipping more top-of-line products with better profitability.
Michael Zhong, a former mining analyst who now operates mining farms at a startup called Force Mine, told CoinDesk that based on his experience, the production capacity ranking among major Chinese miner makers for their flagship products have changed over the years.
Zhong explained that from 2017 to 2018, Bitmain had topped the list with its AntMiner S9 series miners, followed by Canaan’s Avalon 8 series machines. InnoSilicon, Ebang and former Bitmain design director’s MicroBT were all in the third position at the time.
But from January to June this year, the delivery capacity ranking has reshuffled, with now MicroBT’s WhatsMiner M20 series at the top, followed by Bitmain’s S17 series miners and then InnoSilicon, Canaan, and Ebang, Zhong added.
According to F2pool’s miner profit tracker, Bitmain’s flagship AntMiner S17 Pro ranks third in terms of mining profitability, following BitFury’s Tardis and MicroBT’s WhatsMiner M20S. The cost for WhatsMiner M20S is around $3,000, while that of AntMiner S17 Pro is around $4,000 each, based on the information advertised on the two firms’ websites.
Although orders for these flagship machines have queued up until November and December this year, MicroBT’s founder Zuoxing Yang told CoinDesk previously that the bottleneck of production capacity is the availability of chips from suppliers.
For example, MicroBT uses 10-nm chips for its M20 series, which are relatively more affordable with a higher level of availability compared to more advanced 7-nm chips used by Bitmain for its AntMiner S17 series equipment.
While Bitmain has always been relying on chips supplied by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), MicroBT has switched from TSMC to Samsung earlier this year for its flagship products.
Both TSMC and Samsung have estimated in their most recent Q2 earnings calls that the demand for cryptocurrency mining chips will come back in the third and the fourth quarter this year.
Operating miners image courtesy to Hashage
https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoins-computing-power-sets-new-record-as-over-100k-miners-go-online?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=coindesk&utm_term=&utm_content=&utm_campaign=Organic%20
submitted by Muxa84 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

25 Tools and Resources for Crypto Investors: Guide to how to create a winning strategy

Lots of people have PM'd me asking me the same questions on where to find information and how to put together their portfolio so I decided to put a guide for crypto investors, especially those who have only been in a few months and are still confused.
This is going to be Part 1 and will deal with research resources, risk and returns. In Part 2 I'll post a systematic approach to valuation and picking individual assets with derived price targets.

Getting started: Tools and resources

You don't have to be a programmer or techie to invest in crypto, but you should first learn the basics of how it functions. I find that this video by 3Blue1Brown is the best introduction to what a blockchain actually is and how it functions, because it explains it clearly and simply with visuals while not dumbing it down too much. If you want a more ELI5 version with cute cartoons, then Upfolio has a nice beginner's intro to the blockchain concept and quick descriptions of top 100 cryptocurrencies. I also recommend simply going to Wikipedia and reading the blockchain and cryptocurrency page and clicking onto a few links in, read about POS vs POW...etc. Later on you'll need this information to understand why a specific use case may or may not benefit from a blockchain structure. Here is a quick summary of the common terms you should know.
Next you should arm yourself with some informational resources. I compiled a convenient list of useful tools and sites that I've used and find to be worthy of bookmarking:
Market information
Analysis tools
Portfolio Tracking
Youtube
I generally don't follow much on Youtube because it's dominated by idiocy like Trevon James and CryptoNick, but there are some that I think are worthy of following:

Constructing a Investment Strategy

I can't stress enough how important it is to construct an actual investment strategy. Organize what your goals are, what your risk tolerance is and how you plan to construct a portfolio to achieve those goals rather than just chasing the flavor of the week.
Why? Because it will force you to slow down and make decisions based on rational thinking rather than emotion, and will also inevitably lead you to think long term.

Setting ROI targets

Bluntly put, a lot of young investors who are in crypto have really unrealistic expectations about returns and risk.
A lot of them have never invested in any other type of financial asset, and hence many seem to consider a 10% ROI in a month to be unexciting, even though that is roughly what they should be aiming for.
I see a ton of people now on this sub and on other sites making their decisions with the expectation to double their money every month. This has lead a worrying amount of newbies putting in way too much money way too quickly into anything on the front page of CoinMarketCap with a low dollar value per coin hoping that crypto get them out of their debt or a life of drudgery in a cubicle. And all in the next year or two!
But its important to temper your hype about returns and realize why we had this exponential growth in the last year. Its not because we are seeing any mass increase in adoption, if anything adoption among eCommerce sites is decreasing. The only reason we saw so much upward price action is because of fiat monetary base expansion from people FOMO-ing in due to media coverage of previous price action. People are hoping to ride the bubble and sell to a greater fool in a few months, it is classic Greater Fool Theory. That's it. We passed the $1,000 psychological marker again for Bitcoin which we hadn't seen since right before the Mt.Gox disaster, and it just snowballed the positivity as headline after headline came out about the price growth. However those unexciting returns of 10% a month are not only the norm, but much more healthy for an alternative investment class. Here are the annual returns for Bitcoin for the last few years:
Year BTC Return
2017 1,300%
2016 120%
2015 35%
2014 -60%
2013 5300%
2012 150 %
Keep in mind that a 10% monthly increase when compounded equals a 313% annual return, or over 3x your money. That may not sound exciting to those who entered recently and saw their money go 20x in a month on something like Tron before it crashed back down, but that 3X annual return is better than Bitcoin's return every year except the year right before the last market meltdown and 2017. I have been saying for a while now that we are due for a major correction and every investor now should be planning for that possibility through proper allocation and setting return expectations that are reasonable.

Risk Management

Quanitifying risk in crypto is surprisingly difficult because the historical returns aren't normally distributed, meaning that tools like Sharpe Ratio and other risk metrics can't really be used as intended. Instead you'll have to think of your own risk tolerance and qualitatively evaluate how risky each crypto is based on the team, the use case prospects, the amount of competition and the general market risk.
You can think of each crypto having a risk factor that is the summation of the general crypto market risk (Rm) as ultimately everything is tied to how Bitcoin does, but also its own inherent risk specific to its own goals (Ri).
Rt = Rm +Ri
The market risk is something you cannot avoid, if some China FUD comes out about regulations on Bitcoin then your investment in solid altcoin picks will go down too along with Bitcoin. This (Rm) return is essentially what risk you undertake to have a market ROI of 385% I talked about above. What you can minimize though is the Ri, the aset specific risks with the team, the likelihood they will actually deliver, the likelihood that their solution will be adopted. Unfortunately there is no one way to do this, you simply have to take the time to research and form your own opinion on how risky it really is before allocating a certain percentage to it. Consider the individual risk of each crypto and start looking for red flags:
  • guaranteed promises of large returns (protip: that's a Ponzi)
  • float allocations that give way too much to the founder
  • vague whitepapers
  • vague timelines
  • no clear use case
  • Github with no useful code and sparse activity
  • a team that is difficult to find information on or even worse anonymous
While all cryptocurrencies are a risky investments but generally you can break down cryptos into "low" risk core, medium risk speculative and high risk speculative
  • Low Risk Core - This is the exchange pairing cryptos and those that are well established. These are almost sure to be around in 5 years, and will recover after any bear market. Bitcoin, Litecoin and Ethereum are in this class of risk, and I would also argue Monero.
  • Medium Risk Speculative - These would be cryptos which generally have at least some product and are reasonably established, but higher risk than Core. Things like ZCash, Ripple, NEO..etc.
  • High Risk Speculative - This is anything created within the last few months, low caps, shillcoins, ICOs...etc. Most cryptos are in this category, most of them will be essentially worthless in 5 years.
How much risk should you take on? That depends on your own life situation but also it should be proportional to how much expertise you have in both financial analysis and technology. If you're a newbie who doesn't understand the tech and has no idea how to value assets, your risk tolerance should be lower than a programmer who understand the tech or a financial analyst who is experienced in valuation metrics.
Right now the trio of BTC-ETH-LTC account for 55% of the market cap, so between 50-70% of your portfolio in low Risk Core for newbies is a great starting point. Then you can go down to 25-30% as you gain confidence and experience. But always try to keep about 1/3rd in safe core positions. Don't go all in on speculative picks.
Core principles to minimize risk
  • Have the majority of your holdings in things you feel good holding for at least 2 years. Don't use the majority of your investment for day trading or short term investing.
  • Consider using dollar cost averaging to enter a position. This generally means investing a X amount over several periods, instead of at once. You can also use downward biased dollar cost averaging to mitigate against downward risk. For example instead of investing $1000 at once in a position at market price, you can buy $500 at the market price today then set several limit orders at slightly lower intervals (for example $250 at 5% lower than market price, $250 at 10% lower than market price). This way your average cost of acquisition will be lower if the crypto happens to decline over the short term.
  • Never chase a pump. Its simply too risky as its such an inefficient and unregulated market. If you continue to do it, most of your money losing decisions will be because you emotionally FOMO-ed into gambling on a symbol.
  • Invest what you can afford to lose. Don't have more than 5-10% of your net worth in crypto.
  • Consider what level of loss you can't accept in a position with a high risk factor, and use stop-limit orders to hedge against sudden crashes. Set you stop price at about 5-10% above your lowest limit. Stop-limit orders aren't perfect but they're better than having no hedging strategy for a risky microcap in case of some meltdown. Only you can determine what bags you are unwilling to hold.
  • Diversify across sectors and rebalance your allocations periodically. Keep about 1/3rd in low risk core holdings.
  • Have some fiat in reserve at a FDIC-insured exchange (ex. Gemini), and be ready to add to your winning positions on a pullback.
  • Remember you didn't actually make any money until you take some profits, so take do some profits when everyone else is at peak FOMO-ing bubble mode. You will also sleep much more comfortably once you take out the equivalent of your principal.

Portfolio Allocation

Along with thinking about your portfolio in terms of risk categories described above, I really find it helpful to think about the segments you are in. OnChainFX has some segment categorization to think about:
  • Currency
  • General Purpose Platform
  • Advertising
  • Crowdfunding Platform
  • Lending Platform
  • Privacy
  • Distributed Computing/Storage
  • Prediction Markets
  • IOT (Internet of Things)
  • Asset Management
  • Content Creation
  • Exchange Platform
I generally like to simplify these down to these 7 segments:
  • Core holdings - essentially the Low Risk Core segment
  • Platform segment
  • Privacy segment
  • Finance/Bank settlement segment
  • Enterprise Blockchain solutions segment
  • Promising/Innovative Tech segment
This is merely what I use, but I'm sure you can think of your own. The key point I have is to try to invest your medium and high risk picks in a segment you understand well, and in which you can relatively accurately judge risk. If you don't understand anything about how banking works or SWIFT or international settlement layers, don't invest in Stellar. If you have no idea how a supply chain functions, avoid investing in VeChain (even if it's being shilled to death on Reddit at the moment just like XRB was last month). Buffet calls this "circle of competence", he invests in sectors he understands and avoids those he doesn't like tech. I think doing the same thing in crypto is a wise move.
What's interesting is that often we see like-coin movement, for example when a coin from one segment pumps we will frequently see another similar coin in the same segment go up (think Stellar following after Ripple).
Consider the historic correlations between your holdings. Generally when Bitcoin pumps, altcoins dump but at what rate depends on the coin. When Bitcoin goes sideways we tend to see pumping in altcoins, while when Bitcoin goes down, everything goes down.
You should set price targets for each of your holdings, which is a whole separate discussion I'll go in Part 2 of the guide.

Summing it up

This was meant to get you think about what return targets you should set for your portfolio and how much risk you are willing to take and what strategies you can follow to mitigate that risk.
Returns around 385% (average crypto market CAGR over the last 3 years) would be a good target to aim for while remaining realistic, you can tweak it a bit based on your own risk tolerance. What category of risk your individual crypto picks should be will be determined by how much more greed you have for above average market return. A portfolio of 50% core holdings, 30% medium risk in a sector you understand well and 20% in high risk speculative is probably what the average portfolio should look like, with newbies going more towards 70% core and only 5% high risk speculative.
Just by thinking about these things you'll likely do better than most crypto investors, because most don't think about this stuff, to their own detriment.
submitted by arsonbunny to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Crypto Investing Guide: Useful resources and tools, and how to create an investment strategy

Lots of people have PM'd me asking me the same questions on where to find information and how to put together their portfolio so I decided to put a guide for crypto investors, especially those who have only been in a few months and are still confused.
Many people entered recently at a time when the market was rewarding the very worst type of investment behavior. Unfortunately there aren't many guides and a lot of people end up looking at things like Twitter or the trending Youtube crypto videos, which is dominated by "How to make $1,00,000 by daytrading crypto" and influencers like CryptoNick.
So I'll try to put together a guide from what I've learned and some tips, on how to invest in this asset class. This is going to be Part 1, in another post later I'll post a systematic approach to valuation and picking individual assets.

Getting started: Tools and resources

You don't have to be a programmer or techie to invest in crypto, but you should first learn the basics of how it functions. I find that this video by 3Blue1Brown is the best introduction to what a blockchain actually is and how it functions, because it explains it clearly and simply with visuals while not dumbing it down too much. If you want a more ELI5 version with cute cartoons, then Upfolio has a nice beginner's intro to the blockchain concept and quick descriptions of top 100 cryptocurrencies. I also recommend simply going to Wikipedia and reading the blockchain and cryptocurrency page and clicking onto a few links in, read about POS vs POW...etc. Later on you'll need this information to understand why a specific use case may or may not benefit from a blockchain structure. Here is a quick summary of the common terms you should know.
Next you should arm yourself with some informational resources. I compiled a convenient list of useful tools and sites that I've used and find to be worthy of bookmarking:
Market information
Analysis tools
Portfolio Tracking
Youtube
I generally don't follow much on Youtube because it's dominated by idiocy like Trevon James and CryptoNick, but there are some that I think are worthy of following:

Constructing a Investment Strategy

I can't stress enough how important it is to construct an actual investment strategy. Organize what your goals are, what your risk tolerance is and how you plan to construct a portfolio to achieve those goals rather than just chasing the flavor of the week.
Why? Because it will force you to slow down and make decisions based on rational thinking rather than emotion, and will also inevitably lead you to think long term.

Setting ROI targets

Bluntly put, a lot of young investors who are in crypto have really unrealistic expectations about returns and risk.
A lot of them have never invested in any other type of financial asset, and hence many seem to consider a 10% ROI in a month to be unexciting, even though that is roughly what they should be aiming for.
I see a ton of people now on this sub and on other sites making their decisions with the expectation to double their money every month. This has lead a worrying amount of newbies putting in way too much money way too quickly into anything on the front page of CoinMarketCap with a low dollar value per coin hoping that crypto get them out of their debt or a life of drudgery in a cubicle. And all in the next year or two!
But its important to temper your hype about returns and realize why we had this exponential growth in the last year. The only reason we saw so much upward price action is because of fiat monetary base expansion from people FOMO-ing in due to media coverage. People are hoping to ride the bubble and sell to a greater fool in a few months, it is classic Greater Fool Theory. That's it. Its not because we are seeing any mass increase in adoption or actual widespread utility with cryptocurrency. We passed the $1,000 psychological marker again for Bitcoin which we hadn't seen since right before the Mt.Gox disaster, and it just snowballed the positivity as headline after headline came out about the price growth. However those unexciting returns of 10% a month are not only the norm, but much more healthy for an alternative investment class. Here are the annual returns for Bitcoin for the last few years:
Year BTC Return
2017 1,300%
2016 120%
2015 35%
2014 -60%
2013 5300%
2012 150 %
Keep in mind that a 10% monthly increase when compounded equals a 313% annual return, or over 3x your money. That may not sound exciting to those who entered recently and saw their money go 20x in a month on something like Tron before it crashed back down, but that 3X annual return is better than Bitcoin's return every year except the year right before the last market meltdown and 2017. I have been saying for a while now that we are due for a major correction and every investor now should be planning for that possibility through proper allocation and setting return expectations that are reasonable.
How to set a realistic ROI target
How do I set my own personal return target?
Basically I aim to achieve a portfolio return of roughly 385% annually (3.85X increase per year) or about 11.89% monthly return when compounded. How did I come up with that target? I base it on the average compounded annual growth return (CAGR) over the last 3 years on the entire market:
Year Total Crypto Market Cap
Jan 1, 2014: $10.73 billion
Jan 1, 2017: $615 billion
Compounded annual growth return (CAGR): (615/10.73)1/3 = 385%
My personal strategy is to sell my portfolio every December then buy back into the market at around the beginning of February and I intend to hold on average for 3 years, so this works for me but you may choose to do it a different way for your own reasons. I think this is a good average to aim for as a general guideline because it includes both the good years (2017) and the bad (2014). Once you have a target you can construct your risk profile (low risk vs. high risk category coins) in your portfolio. If you want to try for a higher CAGR than about 385% then you will likely need to go into more highly speculative picks. I can't tell you what return target you should set for yourself, but just make sure its not depended on you needing to achieve continual near vertical parabolic price action in small cap shillcoins because that isn't sustainable.
As the recent January dip showed while the core cryptos like Bitcoin and Ethereum would dip an X percentage, the altcoins would often drop double or triple that amount. Its a very fragile market, and the type of dumb behavior that people were engaging in that was profitable in a bull market (chasing pumps, going all in on a microcap shillcoin, having an attention span of a squirrel...etc) will lead to consequences. Just like they jumped on the crypto bandwagon without thinking about risk adjusted returns, they will just as quickly jump on whatever bandwagon will be used to blame for the deflation of the bubble, whether the blame is assigned to Wall Steet and Bitcoin futures or Asians or some government.
Nobody who pumped money into garbage without any use case or utility will accept that they themselves and their own unreasonable expectations for returns were the reason for the gross mispricing of most cryptocurrencies.

Risk Management

Quanitifying risk in crypto is surprisingly difficult because the historical returns aren't normally distributed, meaning that tools like Sharpe Ratio and other risk metrics can't really be used as intended. Instead you'll have to think of your own risk tolerance and qualitatively evaluate how risky each crypto is based on the team, the use case prospects, the amount of competition and the general market risk.
You can think of each crypto having a risk factor that is the summation of the general crypto market risk (Rm) as ultimately everything is tied to how Bitcoin does, but also its own inherent risk specific to its own goals (Ri).
Rt = Rm +Ri
The market risk is something you cannot avoid, if some China FUD comes out about regulations on Bitcoin then your investment in solid altcoin picks will go down too along with Bitcoin. This (Rm) return is essentially what risk you undertake to have a market ROI of 385% I talked about above. What you can minimize though is the Ri, the aset specific risks with the team, the likelihood they will actually deliver, the likelihood that their solution will be adopted. Unfortunately there is no one way to do this, you simply have to take the time to research and form your own opinion on how risky it really is before allocating a certain percentage to it. Consider the individual risk of each crypto and start looking for red flags:
  • guaranteed promises of large returns (protip: that's a Ponzi)
  • float allocations that give way too much to the founder
  • vague whitepapers
  • vague timelines
  • no clear use case
  • Github with no useful code and sparse activity
  • a team that is difficult to find information on or even worse anonymous
While all cryptocurrencies are a risky investments but generally you can break down cryptos into "low" risk core, medium risk speculative and high risk speculative
  • Low Risk Core - This is the exchange pairing cryptos and those that are well established. These are almost sure to be around in 5 years, and will recover after any bear market. Bitcoin, Litecoin and Ethereum are in this class of risk, and I would also argue Monero.
  • Medium Risk Speculative - These would be cryptos which generally have at least some product and are reasonably established, but higher risk than Core. Things like ZCash, Ripple, NEO..etc.
  • High Risk Speculative - This is anything created within the last few months, low caps, shillcoins, ICOs...etc. Most cryptos are in this category, most of them will be essentially worthless in 5 years.
How much risk should you take on? That depends on your own life situation but also it should be proportional to how much expertise you have in both financial analysis and technology. If you're a newbie who doesn't understand the tech and has no idea how to value assets, your risk tolerance should be lower than a programmer who understand the tech or a financial analyst who is experienced in valuation metrics.
Right now the trio of BTC-ETH-LTC account for 55% of the market cap, so between 50-70% of your portfolio in low Risk Core for newbies is a great starting point. Then you can go down to 25-30% as you gain confidence and experience. But always try to keep about 1/3rd in safe core positions. Don't go all in on speculative picks.
Core principles to minimize risk
  • Have the majority of your holdings in things you feel good holding for at least 2 years. Don't use the majority of your investment for day trading or short term investing.
  • Consider using dollar cost averaging to enter a position. This generally means investing a X amount over several periods, instead of at once. You can also use downward biased dollar cost averaging to mitigate against downward risk. For example instead of investing $1000 at once in a position at market price, you can buy $500 at the market price today then set several limit orders at slightly lower intervals (for example $250 at 5% lower than market price, $250 at 10% lower than market price). This way your average cost of acquisition will be lower if the crypto happens to decline over the short term.
  • Never chase a pump. Its simply too risky as its such an inefficient and unregulated market. If you continue to do it, most of your money losing decisions will be because you emotionally FOMO-ed into gambling on a symbol.
  • Invest what you can afford to lose. Don't have more than 5-10% of your net worth in crypto.
  • Consider what level of loss you can't accept in a position with a high risk factor, and use stop-limit orders to hedge against sudden crashes. Set you stop price at about 5-10% above your lowest limit. Stop-limit orders aren't perfect but they're better than having no hedging strategy for a risky microcap in case of some meltdown. Only you can determine what bags you are unwilling to hold.
  • Diversify across sectors and rebalance your allocations periodically. Keep about 1/3rd in low risk core holdings.
  • Have some fiat in reserve at a FDIC-insured exchange (ex. Gemini), and be ready to add to your winning positions on a pullback.
  • Remember you didn't actually make any money until you take some profits, so take do some profits when everyone else is at peak FOMO-ing bubble mode. You will also sleep much more comfortably once you take out the equivalent of your principal.

Portfolio Allocation

Along with thinking about your portfolio in terms of risk categories described above, I really find it helpful to think about the segments you are in. OnChainFX has some segment categorization but I generally like to bring it down to:
  • Core holdings - essentially the Low Risk Core segment
  • Platform segment
  • Privacy segment
  • Finance/Bank settlement segment
  • Enterprise Blockchain solutions segment
  • Promising/Innovative Tech segment
This is merely what I use, but I'm sure you can think of your own. The key point I have is to try to invest your medium and high risk picks in a segment you understand well, and in which you can relatively accurately judge risk. If you don't understand anything about how banking works or SWIFT or international settlement layers, don't invest in Stellar. If you have no idea how a supply chain functions, avoid investing in VeChain (even if it's being shilled to death on Reddit at the moment just like XRB was last month).
What's interesting is that often we see like-coin movement, for example when a coin from one segment pumps we will frequently see another similar coin in the same segment go up (think Stellar following after Ripple).
Consider the historic correlations between your holdings. Generally when Bitcoin pumps, altcoins dump but at what rate depends on the coin. When Bitcoin goes sideways we tend to see pumping in altcoins, while when Bitcoin goes down, everything goes down.
You should set price targets for each of your holdings, which is a whole separate discussion I'll go in Part 2 of the guide.

Summing it up

This was meant to get you think about what return targets you should set for your portfolio and how much risk you are willing to take and what strategies you can follow to mitigate that risk.
Returns around 385% (average crypto market CAGR over the last 3 years) would be a good target to aim for while remaining realistic, you can tweak it a bit based on your own risk tolerance. What category of risk your individual crypto picks should be will be determined by how much more greed you have for above average market return. A portfolio of 50% core holdings, 30% medium risk in a sector you understand well and 20% in high risk speculative is probably what the average portfolio should look like, with newbies going more towards 70% core and only 5% high risk speculative.
Just by thinking about these things you'll likely do better than most crypto investors, because most don't think about this stuff, to their own detriment.
submitted by arsonbunny to CryptoMarkets [link] [comments]

Quantum Computing Vs. Blockchain

Quantum Computing Vs. Blockchain


The cryptocurrency community has long been discussing one technical feature of the blockchain, which directly affects its future. We are talking about the threat to the blockchain from the so-called quantum computing. The fact is that if these threats are implemented, crypto assets will not be able to function technically and all problems with their regulation will disappear by themselves.
Indeed, what is the point of creating a serious regulatory system for an instrument that will soon become simply inoperable?
Most modern cryptocurrencies are built on a particular cryptographic algorithm that ensures its security. The level of protection is determined by the amount of work required by the key, the password that determines the final result of the cryptographic conversion. It is known that when solving cryptography problems, the classical computer performs total testing of possible keys, in turn, one after another. A quantum computer can instantly test a set of keys and establish a combination that has the maximum probability of being true and thereby compromise the cryptosystem.
The threat to bitcoin is that high-speed quantum computers, as a result, will be able to “create problems” to the encryption processes and digital signatures used in the technology of blockchain and virtual currencies. Ultra-fast calculations would in principle allow to forge smart contracts and steal “coins”.
Most cryptocurrencies use public-key encryption algorithms for communications and, in particular, digital signatures. Public key cryptography is based on one-way mathematical functions-operations that are simple in one direction and difficult in the other. If we use quantum computers rather than classical ones to solve the factorization problem, it is solved much faster. Quantum computer allows for a couple of minutes to determine the secret key on the public, and the knowledge of the secret key allows you to access the address of the bitcoin network. It turns out that the owner of the quantum computer will be able to break the encryption system with a public key and write off (steal) “coins” from the appropriate address. This feature of quantum computing is the main danger for bitcoin.
According to some estimates, the quantum computer will be able to determine the secret key on the open in 2027.
Some commentators believe that with the advent of full-fledged quantum computers, the era of cryptocurrencies and blockchain will come to its logical end — the cryptography systems on which cryptocurrencies are based will be compromised, and the cryptocurrencies themselves will become worthless. Allegedly, the first thing that the owner of a quantum computer will do is quickly mine the remaining bitcoins, ethers and other popular crypto-coins. Experts have estimated that bitcoin hacking will require a quantum computer with a capacity of 10 thousand qubits, and it is not so long to wait for it — perhaps ten years, or even less.
IBM 50Q System: An IBM cryostat wired for a 50 qubit system. Photo from the www.ibm.com
However, not everyone shares this opinion.
According to new forecasts, a commercially acceptable version of the quantum computer will not appear until 2040. Many cryptocurrency experts are sure that by this moment developers will be able to prepare and adapt the blockchain to new realities. They will be able to modify the cryptocurrency code and protect the technologies used in it from hacking.
Analysts, however, emphasize that although an attacker with a powerful quantum computer will be able to get the secret key from the public, it is impossible to get the public key from the bitcoin address of the recipient of the transaction. The public key is converted to a bitcoin address by several unidirectional hash functions that are resistant to quantum computation. However, in fact, the public key still gets into the network one day. This occurs when the transaction is signed by the sender of the “coin”. Otherwise, the network will not be able to confirm the transaction, because there is no other way to verify the authenticity of the sender’s signature.
The widespread fear of a direct threat to bitcoin by quantum computing is exaggerated and comes from ignorance. In fact, using crowdsourcing, blockchain technology solves many problems, including reducing threats to its security from quantum computers. That is why the network based on the blockchain for superior protection network and platform of centralized architecture. Dr. Brennan has analyzed the threat of blockchain technologies by modern systems of quantum computing. He investigated the potential of a quantum computer in terms of the possibility of its use “for manipulating the blockchain in the centralization of hashing power” and assessed the probability of disclosure of the key of the encryption system that underlies the mechanism of protecting users of the blockchain. The results of the study show that the existing developments in the field of quantum computing are very far from the “imaginary possibilities” of quantum technologies — the modern quantum infrastructure is characterized by speed, absolutely insufficient to solve extremely complex problems such as the search for an acceptable time encryption key.
At least on the horizon of the next 10 years, the speed of quantum computers will be insufficient compared to the capabilities of modern mining machines.

Bitcoin will not give way before quantum computing.

Can Quantum Computing Take Over Blockchain?

Practice crosses out any theoretical constructions that claim that quantum computing is able to “master” the blockchain. This is due to the limited capabilities of existing technical means and the ongoing development of the blockchain protection system. The technology that can compromise the work of the blockchain is becoming obsolete by the time of its appearance, it is constantly about ten years behind the development of blockchain technology.
The head of the laboratory of quantum computing John Martinis from Google also rejected the assumption that quantum computing could pose a direct threat to blockchain systems and cryptocurrencies in the near future. Martinis believes that the process of creating quantum computers will take at least a decade, and the practical implementation of effective quantum computing will require even more time. He believes that the creation of quantum devices “is really problematic and much more difficult than the creation of a classical computer”.
From another angle, one of the world’s leading experts in the field of bitcoin and blockchain Andreas Antonopoulos also looked at the problem under consideration. Andreas Antonopoulos official Twitter page.
He is convinced that the US NSA and other intelligence agencies will not use a quantum computer against bitcoin, even if they have such weapons.
Andreas Antonopoulos said:
“I’m not at all worried that the NSA might have a quantum computer, because the basic security law says: if you have a powerful secret weapon, you do not use it. You need a very significant excuse to use it”.
He cited as an example the decryption by the British cryptographer Alan Turing of the German military machine encryption Telegraph messages “Enigma” during the Second World War. The Germans used this machine, in particular, for secret communication in the Navy. The British government then decided to keep this success in the strictest confidence, and by any means to hide the source of information (it was removed from the communication channels). The British had even deliberately not to prevent the sinking of their ships by the Germans, because as soon as the enemy realizes the compromise of the codes used by him, he immediately takes measures to Refine its technology.
The question of the threat of quantum computing is not the existence of a quantum computer, but its power — the number of quantum bits (qubits). Special services at this stage of development can not have enough power to attack the Bitcoin blockchain. However, a really real problem will arise when quantum computers become commercially available, but not so much that everyone can use them in their bitcoin wallet. During this transition period, bitcoin will need to switch to new algorithms. It is not yet clear how this transition will take place.
Researchers estimate the exploitability of the ideas of quantum-secured blockchain, the essence of which is that the Central element in the protection technology of the blockchain to make the quantum technology of quantum communication. Quantum communications (or, more precisely, quantum key distribution) guarantee security based on the laws of physics, not on the complexity of solving mathematical problems, as in the case of public-key cryptography. As a result, the quantum blockchain (it can be defined as a set of methods of using quantum technologies for calculations; the work of the quantum blockchain is based on the use of quantum communications to authenticate the participants of operations) will be invulnerable to attacks using a quantum computer.
Brennen and Tucker agree that quantum computing, at least on paper, definitely poses a threat to the security of blockchain networks. Feed her fears caused by the injection of panic sensational articles in the media. Tucker believes that the talk that quantum computing poses an immediate threat to the blockchain is distracting from the really important topics for discussion. The quantum threat to bitcoin cannot be completely excluded, but the level of this threat is estimated as minimal, especially if we take into account the high reliability of the network of this cryptocurrency and powerful incentives to ensure the highest level of its security.
Perhaps, from all this, it is possible to draw two conclusions. First, bitcoin in the current modification is really vulnerable to quantum computing. Secondly, it is equally obvious that there are and there will be many opportunities in the future to improve it. On the one hand, it is, in particular, alternative systems of cryptographic protection of transactions, and including on the basis of public-key ciphers, on the other — quantum communication systems that guarantee the security of communication without the use of mathematics.
So quantum systems promise new means of protection of virtual currency blockchains. If we turn to ordinary money, it can be noted that as technological development is constantly evolving and their means of protection. Remember how to protect against counterfeiting of conventional paper money is constantly coming up with new and unusual technologies. From all this, it follows that from a technical point of view, crypto assets are for a long time, which makes their regulation useful.
Material developed by the Legal Department of EdJoWa Holding
submitted by IMBA-Exchange to u/IMBA-Exchange [link] [comments]

Nearly $10 Billion in BTC Is Held in Wallets of 8 Crypto Exchanges

Nearly $10 Billion in BTC Is Held in Wallets of 8 Crypto Exchanges

https://preview.redd.it/dowyiuvulgr31.png?width=684&format=png&auto=webp&s=9a7b6ed8bb34e2cc1a588952be81fb8a4963c37f
Almost 7% of the entire circulating supply of Bitcoin (BTC) is held in the wallets of eight major cryptocurrency exchanges, according to Twitter account The Token Analyst.

“Exchanges are the biggest HODLers”

On Oct. 8, the Token Analyst wrote that, throughout Bitcoin’s history, the amount of the world’s most popular crypto coins on exchange wallets has consistently been increasing.
The Twitter account, which provides real-time and historical blockchain data, estimated close to 1.2 million coins is currently held in the wallets of eight major exchanges — with the Token Analyst describing them as “the biggest HODLers.”
An accompanying graph shows that Huobi Group is leading the pack of crypto exchanges, with the most amount of BTC in its wallets. Binance and BitMEX are battling it out for second place.

HODL the date

One of the best-known words in the crypto vernacular is having a birthday party on Dec. 18. The word HODL was coined on BitcoinTalk almost six years ago, when Bitcoin started crashing after touching $1,000.
Bitcointalk member GameKyuubi gets the credit for coining the word HODL, a word that has been universally understood as a recommendation for not selling digital assets in times of FUD. He misspelled the word "hold" during a posted rant opposed to selling.

“Bitcoin price will rally higher”

Cointelegraph previously reported that CNBC crypto Twitter analyst Big Cheds said that the upcoming days are most likely going to be bearish for the crypto space, but that he remains bullish for BTC over the long term.
submitted by SilkChain to SilkNews [link] [comments]

Nearly $10 Billion in BTC Is Held in Wallets of 8 Crypto Exchanges

Almost 7% of the entire circulating supply of Bitcoin (BTC) is held in the wallets of eight major cryptocurrency exchanges, according to Twitter account The Token Analyst.

On Oct. 8, the Token Analyst wrote that, throughout Bitcoin’s history, the amount of the world’s most popular crypto coins on exchange wallets has consistently been increasing.

The Twitter account, which provides real-time and historical blockchain data, estimated close to 1.2 million coins is currently held in the wallets of eight major exchanges — with the Token Analyst describing them as “the biggest HODLers.”

An accompanying graph shows that Huobi Group is leading the pack of crypto exchanges, with the most amount of BTC in its wallets. Binance and BitMEX are battling it out for second place.

One of the best-known words in the crypto vernacular is having a birthday party on Dec. 18. The word HODL was coined on BitcoinTalk almost six years ago, when Bitcoin started crashing after touching $1,000.

Bitcointalk member GameKyuubi gets the credit for coining the word HODL, a word that has been universally understood as a recommendation for not selling digital assets in times of FUD. He misspelled the word "hold" during a posted rant opposed to selling.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/nearly-10-billion-in-btc-is-held-in-wallets-of-8-crypto-exchanges
submitted by FastSellerService to BitcoinInfo [link] [comments]

Nearly $10 Billion in BTC Is Held in Wallets of 8 Crypto Exchanges

Nearly $10 Billion in BTC Is Held in Wallets of 8 Crypto Exchanges

https://preview.redd.it/5s63f4hplgr31.png?width=684&format=png&auto=webp&s=fd122146213be6af6a0917c010f51a8346a7d16e
Almost 7% of the entire circulating supply of Bitcoin (BTC) is held in the wallets of eight major cryptocurrency exchanges, according to Twitter account The Token Analyst.

“Exchanges are the biggest HODLers”

On Oct. 8, the Token Analyst wrote that, throughout Bitcoin’s history, the amount of the world’s most popular crypto coins on exchange wallets has consistently been increasing.
The Twitter account, which provides real-time and historical blockchain data, estimated close to 1.2 million coins is currently held in the wallets of eight major exchanges — with the Token Analyst describing them as “the biggest HODLers.”
An accompanying graph shows that Huobi Group is leading the pack of crypto exchanges, with the most amount of BTC in its wallets. Binance and BitMEX are battling it out for second place.

HODL the date

One of the best-known words in the crypto vernacular is having a birthday party on Dec. 18. The word HODL was coined on BitcoinTalk almost six years ago, when Bitcoin started crashing after touching $1,000.
Bitcointalk member GameKyuubi gets the credit for coining the word HODL, a word that has been universally understood as a recommendation for not selling digital assets in times of FUD. He misspelled the word "hold" during a posted rant opposed to selling.

“Bitcoin price will rally higher”

Cointelegraph previously reported that CNBC crypto Twitter analyst Big Cheds said that the upcoming days are most likely going to be bearish for the crypto space, but that he remains bullish for BTC over the long term.
submitted by SilkChain to u/SilkChain [link] [comments]

(6/14) - Thursday's Stock Market Movers & News

Good morning traders of the StockMarket sub! Welcome to Thursday! Here are your stock movers & news this morning-

(CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE FULL SOURCE!)

Frontrunning: June 14th

STOCK FUTURES NOW:

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TODAY'S MARKET HEAT MAP:

(CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S MARKET HEAT MAP!)

TODAY'S S&P SECTORS:

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TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

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THIS WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR:

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THIS WEEK'S IPO'S:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S IPO'S!)

THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR:

($ADBE $GOOS $RH $PLAY $BITA $HRB $KMG $YTRA $MIK $SBLK $CASY $LE $FNSR $KFY $TLRD $SAIC $FRED $JBL $LMNR $OXM $SNOA$APPS $PVTL $JW.A $DTEA $TNP $CRWS $CHKE $CULP $AZRE)
(CLICK HERE FOR THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!)

THIS MORNING'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS CALENDAR:

($MIK $TLRD $FRED $SNOA $CULP $MPAA)
(CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S EARNINGS CALENDAR!)

EARNINGS RELEASES BEFORE THE OPEN TODAY:

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EARNINGS RELEASES AFTER THE CLOSE TODAY:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S EARNINGS RELEASES!)

THIS MORNING'S ANALYST UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES:

(CLICK HERE FOR THIS MORNING'S UPGRADES/DOWNGRADES!)

THIS MORNING'S INSIDER TRADING FILINGS:

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TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR:

([CLICK HERE FOR TODAY'S DIVIDEND CALENDAR!]())
N/A.

THIS MORNING'S MOST ACTIVE TRENDING DISCUSSIONS:

  • MIK
  • IQ
  • TSLA
  • ORCL
  • NTDOY
  • TLRD
  • XPO
  • RCL
  • MYL
  • PVTL
  • COF
  • CMCSA
  • FNSR
  • TYPE
  • TEX
  • STLD
  • ETSY
  • HUYA
  • FOXA
  • GALT
  • XLF
  • MD
  • KTWO
  • REN
  • GOGL
  • CPLG
  • SAGE
  • CLVS
  • BBW
  • PII

THIS MORNING'S STOCK NEWS MOVERS:

(source: cnbc.com)
Comcast – Comcast is offering $65 billion for 21st Century Fox assets that Fox had already agreed to sell to Walt Disney. The bid by the NBCUniversal and CNBC parent is worth $35 per share and represents a 20 percent premium over Disney's all-stock offer. Disney is lining up financing for a possible counteroffer that would include a cash component, according to The Wall Street Journal. Fox acknowledged receiving the bid and said it would review it.

STOCK SYMBOL: CMCSA

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Oracle – J.P. Morgan Securities downgraded the business software maker's stock to "neutral" from "overweight," saying the company's fundamental performance has been inconsistent even as the stock price has been rising.

STOCK SYMBOL: ORCL

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Royal Caribbean – The cruise line operator is buying a 66.7 percent stake in privately held luxury cruise line Silversea Cruises for $1 billion.

STOCK SYMBOL: RCL

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Michaels – The crafts retailer beat estimates by a penny a share, with adjusted quarterly profit of 39 cents per share. Revenue also beat forecasts. Michaels posted a comparable-store sales increase of 0.4 percent compared to a year earlier. However, Michaels gave a weaker-than-expected current-quarter forecast and said comparable sales would be about flat.

STOCK SYMBOL: MIK

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Tesla – CEO Elon Musk has bought an additional 72,500 shares of the automaker, worth about $24.9 million, according to a Securities and Exchange Commission filing. Musk now owns about 33.7 million shares worth about $11.6 billion.

STOCK SYMBOL: TSLA

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Tailored Brands – The company reported adjusted quarterly profit of 50 cents per share, 2 cents a share above estimates. The apparel retailer's revenue also topped forecasts. However, the parent of Jos. A. Bank, Men's Wearhouse, and other apparel chains posted a 2.1 percent increase in comparable-store sales, falling below a 2.5 percent consensus estimate.

STOCK SYMBOL: TLRD

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Gap – The apparel retailer named former Billabong International and Eddie Bauer CEO Neil Fiske as president and chief executive officer of its flagship Gap apparel brand.

STOCK SYMBOL: GPS

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Unilever – Unilever said it was "extremely unlikely" that the consumer products maker's stock would remain in Britain's FTSE 100 index once it moves its headquarters to the Netherlands.

STOCK SYMBOL: UL

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General Electric – GE was urged by France's finance minister to stick to its commitment to create 1,000 jobs at energy producer Alstom. GE had made that commitment when it bought Alstom's energy business in 2015, but GE subsequently said the target was out of reach.

STOCK SYMBOL: GE

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Microsoft – Microsoft is working on technology that would eliminate cashiers and checkout lines from stores, according to a Reuters report. That would represent a challenge to Amazon's automated grocery stores.

STOCK SYMBOL: MSFT

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Mylan – The drugmaker said it was informed by the Food and Drug Administration that its generic version of GlaxoSmithKline's inhaled lung drug Advair could not be approved because of "minor deficiencies." It was Mylan's second rejection for its generic Advair product.

STOCK SYMBOL: MYL

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Twitter – Twitter has retooled its service to more prominently suggest news stories and real-time events for users to follow. The changes will be rolled out to Twitter mobile app users over the next few months.

STOCK SYMBOL: TWTR

(CLICK HERE FOR LIVE STOCK QUOTE!)
Apple – Apple is working on a feature that The Wall Street Journal said may make it more difficult for law enforcement officials to retrieve data from iPhones. Apple said the feature is designed to strengthen safeguards against all potential intruders and that it is not designed to frustrate law enforcement efforts.

STOCK SYMBOL: AAPL

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FULL DISCLOSURE:

bigbear0083 has no positions in any stocks mentioned. Reddit, moderators, and the author do not advise making investment decisions based on discussion in these posts. Analysis is not subject to validation and users take action at their own risk. bigbear0083 is an admin at the financial forums Stockaholics.net where this content was originally posted.

DISCUSS!

What is on everyone's radar for today's trading day ahead here at StockMarket?

I hope you all have an excellent trading day ahead today on this Thursday, June 14th, 2018! :)

submitted by bigbear0083 to StockMarket [link] [comments]

Haw DeepCloud Workd. DeepcloudAI

Haw DeepCloud Workd. DeepcloudAI
DeepCloud AI aims to provide an AI-driven decentralized cloud platform for running decentralized IoT and Web 3.0 applications.

https://preview.redd.it/2l4ahkaki5131.png?width=790&format=png&auto=webp&s=a8794de0897e9eb127643a0e06de8a6cefaf6d0a
While the cloud industry is already very mature with large players like AWS, Google Cloud and Azure, their cloud infrastructure is geared towards centralized applications where key resources are running in large centralized data centers. These solutions are not suitable for building decentralized peer-to-peer and IoT applications which have the requirement for computation resources running close to the edge devices for processing the growing volume of data generated at the edge, or a cost-e­ective, solutions for payment flow for micro-transactions executed automatically by the p2p IoT devices as they interact with each other and automate common tasks. Similar problems exist for solutions involving complex multi-party integration across organizations for example in supply chains, government institutions, financial institutions.

Current systems rely heavily on high cost intermediaries and proprietary interfaces which are very costly to build and maintain making it di cult for smaller players and companies to enter into market. Many aggregation platforms like Airbnb, Uber etc. have emerged in recent years, with promise for a shared economy with sharing of wealth with the crowd but have soon evolved into centralized behemoths taking large cut and fees (often 30% or higher) for these aggregated services. Blockchain, the underlying technology behind Bitcoin, has emerged as a new disruptive platform to tackle these problems, ushering in a new era of “Internet of Value” vs the “Internet of Information”. It is democratizing the internet and leveling the playing field for consumers and business to operate in an increasingly global marketplace. DeepCloud AI will democratize the playing field [1] for cloud infrastructure and open-up the market for resource provides and application developers to run and deploy their decentralized applications in a cost-e­ective manner. Like Golem, SONM, iExec, we are building a decentralized cloud platform, and betting on blockchain based cloud solution as the future for decentralized applications. Our core di­erentiator is the use of AI for doing the resource matching between the network resource providers and application developers. Further, with the extensive industry knowledge and expertise of building Enterprise solutions, our core team, brings to the table deep insights and know-how for Enterprise customers.

Cloud platforms are enabling complex business models and orchestration of larger globally integrated networks surpassing all prior predictions by analysts. Leading market research organizations are revising their estimates for cloud usage/growth as they see more utility for new applications, along with higher than expected adoption by mid-tier and small and medium enterprises (SME). Gartner's prediction for Cloud Computing Market [2] expects an increase for Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) from 36.6 percent in 2017 to reach $34.7 billion by 2020. Per Gartner, IaaS is the highest revenue generating area in cloud computing space.

https://preview.redd.it/8dazeb1ui5131.png?width=788&format=png&auto=webp&s=06018778e37c6ae6b05ec2382c654ffda28bef4d
DeepCloud AI is exploring the new market of decentralized solutions by o‘ering users a blockchain-based decentralized cloud service option. With the rise of Blockchain, Internet of Things (IoT) and AI at the Edge, we envision a great future ahead. And leveraging Artificial Intelligence (AI) for resource management allows DeepCloud AI to o‘er a revolutionary cloud infrastructure for decentralized applications.


The DeepCloud AI Platform is a decentralized IaaS Cloud provider with following services:


https://preview.redd.it/qlxsfl21j5131.png?width=784&format=png&auto=webp&s=614ca08dbf1e87a4df7055071ce44bf879948cf8
DeepCloud AI’s Business Model is based on a two-sided marketplace, with “Network Resource Providers” on one side providing the compute and storage resources for decentralized applications, and “Decentralized Application Developers (IoT, dApp)” consuming the resources for running their applications. DeepCloud AI relies on the Network Resource Providers and Application Marketplace providers for the services that it o ers on the cloud. DeepCloud AI’s Core Platform controller manages the resources and has the AI Matching engine for matching the Network Resource Providers and the Application developers.


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Bitconometrics – Econometrics in Bitcoin  Manuel Andersch BITCOIN Prognose $ 1.000.000 US Dollar BITCOIN: How Far Can It Go? BTC Technical Analysis BITCOIN MINERS CAPITULATE!! THIS SHOWS EXACT BTC BUY ZONE BEFORE NEXT PUMP!! Analyst: Bitcoin on course ATH despite volatility

Bitcoin Price Theorists Claim Twitter Mentions Coincide With Price. Per the researchers from eToro, the more people are mentioning the coin on Twitter, the more the price goes up. The eToro exchange inked a partnership with the data analysis firm, TIE to provide a new metric for longs. It tracks how many Twitter mentions the coin gets and then estimates the next price moves. Analyzing the ... A few hours ago, Jack shared a chart from his Twitter account and expressed his views on Bitcoin. Believing that the market will be on the rise, Jack said that the price of Bitcoin may increase several thousand dollars in the next few months. According to his estimates, if Bitcoin exceeds the $ 10,000 level, the medium-term target may be $ 17,000. Twitter Inc. analyst ratings, historical stock prices, earnings estimates & actuals. TWTR updated stock price target summary. The predicted market value for bitcoin after May 2020 halving is $1 trillion, which translates into a bitcoin price of $55,000. A recently updated S2F model puts the BTC price (given 19M BTC in 2020–2024) at $288K. It suggests that the Bitcoin price could rise to $100,000 by the end of 2020 and then to $1,000,000 (one million) around 2024. The latest Bitcoin stock to flow chart is below ... Bitcoin’s block reward halving is here at long last. Estimates suggest that the event is a mere seven days out from taking place. The halving is an event that will see the number of coins issued per Bitcoin block cut in half from 12.5 to 6.25. This will result in an instant 50% reduction in the inflation of the BTC monetary base.

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Bitconometrics – Econometrics in Bitcoin Manuel Andersch

Bitcoin: How far can it go? In this video, I give my technical analysis of what Bitcoin is doing as well as my current thoughts on Bitcoin. Bitcoin had a great breakout from its falling wedge and ... Joel Kruger, Currency Analyst at LMAX Group, believes Bitcoin could still reach $15,000-$20,000 this year despite recent volatility and a drop below $8K. bitcoin surge only when this happens!! top bitcoin analyst predicting massive rally - 2020 160% pump TOP BITCOIN ANALYST PREDICTING MASSIVE RALLY - 2020 160% PUMP Tyler S On-chain analyst Willy Woo published a new Bitcoin price model showing a new BTC bull run could begin in 30 days. One fundamental metric just reached levels not seen since just before the intense ... Manuel works as Economist and FX Analyst in the research team of BayernLB, where he has also been covering Bitcoin for many years. He completed his degree in economics at the Ludwig-Maximilians ...

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