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A Detailed Summary of Every Single Reason Why I am Bullish on Ethereum

The following will be a list of the many reasons why I hold and am extremely bullish on ETH.

This is an extremely long post. If you just want the hopium without the detail, read the TL;DR at the bottom.

ETH 2.0

As we all know, ETH 2.0 phase 0 is right around the corner. This will lock up ETH and stakers will earn interest on their ETH in return for securing the network. Next comes phase 1 where the ETH 2 shards are introduced, shards are essentially parallel blockchains which are each responsible for a different part of Ethereum’s workload, think of it like a multi-core processor vs a single core processor. During phase 1, these shards will only act as data availability layers and won’t actually process transactions yet. However, their data can be utilised by the L2 scaling solution, rollups, increasing Ethereum’s throughput in transactions per second up to 100,000 TPS.
After phase 1 comes phase 1.5 which will move the ETH 1.0 chain into an ETH 2 shard and Ethereum will be fully secured by proof of stake. This means that ETH issuance will drop from around 5% per year to less than 1% and with EIP-1559, ETH might become a deflationary asset, but more on that later.
Finally, with ETH 2.0 phase two, each shard will be fully functional chains. With 64 of them, we can expect the base layer of Ethereum to scale around 64x, not including the massive scaling which comes from layer 2 scaling solutions like rollups as previously mentioned.
While the scaling benefits and ETH issuance reduction which comes with ETH 2.0 will be massive, they aren’t the only benefits. We also get benefits such as increased security from PoS compared to PoW, a huge energy efficiency improvement due to the removal of PoW and also the addition of eWASM which will allow contracts to be programmed in a wide range of programming languages, opening the floodgates for millions of web devs who want to be involved in Ethereum but don’t know Ethereum’s programming language, Solidity.

EIP-1559 and ETH scarcity

As I covered in a previous post of mine, ETH doesn’t have a supply cap like Bitcoin. Instead, it has a monetary policy of “minimum viable issuance”, not only is this is a good thing for network security, but with the addition of EIP-1559, it leaves the door open to the possibility of ETH issuance going negative. In short, EIP-1559 changes the fee market to make transaction prices more efficient (helping to alleviate high gas fees!) by burning a variable base fee which changes based on network usage demand rather than using a highest bidder market where miners simply include who pays them the most. This will result in most of the ETH being paid in transaction fees being burned. As of late, the amount which would be burned if EIP-1559 was in Ethereum right now would make ETH a deflationary asset!

Layer 2 Scaling

In the mean time while we are waiting for ETH 2.0, layer 2 scaling is here. Right now, projects such as Deversifi or Loopring utilise rollups to scale to thousands of tx/s on their decentralised exchange platforms or HoneySwap which uses xDai to offer a more scalable alternative to UniSwap. Speaking of which, big DeFi players like UniSwap and Synthetix are actively looking into using optimistic rollups to scale while maintaining composability between DeFi platforms. The most bullish thing about L2 scaling is all of the variety of options. Here’s a non exhaustive list of Ethereum L2 scaling solutions: - Aztec protocol (L2 scaling + privacy!) - ZKSync - Loopring - Raiden - Arbitrum Rollups - xDai - OMGNetwork - Matic - FuelLabs - Starkware - Optimism - Celer Network - + Many more

DeFi and Composability

If you’re reading this, I am sure you are aware of the phenomena which is Decentralised Finance (DeFi or more accurately, open finance). Ethereum is the first platform to offer permissionless and immutable financial services which when interacting with each other, lead to unprecedented composability and innovation in financial applications. A whole new world of possibilities are opening up thanks to this composability as it allows anyone to take existing pieces of open source code from other DeFi projects, put them together like lego pieces (hence the term money legos) and create something the world has never seen before. None of this was possible before Ethereum because typically financial services are heavily regulated and FinTech is usually proprietary software, so you don’t have any open source lego bricks to build off and you have to build everything you need from scratch. That is if what you want to do is even legal for a centralised institution!
Oh, and if you think that DeFi was just a fad and the bubble has popped, guess again! Total value locked in DeFi is currently at an all time high. Don’t believe me? Find out for yourself on the DeFi Pulse website.

NFTs and tokeniation

NFTs or “Non-Fungible Tokens” - despite the name which may confuse a layman - are a basic concept. They are unique tokens with their own unique attributes. This allows you to create digital art, human readable names for your ETH address (see ENS names and unstoppable domains), breedable virtual collectible creatures like crypto kitties, ownable in game assets like Gods Unchained cards or best of all in my opinion, tokenised ownership of real world assets which can even be split into pieces (this doesn’t necessarily require an NFT. Fungible tokens can be/are used for some of the following use cases). This could be tokenised ownership of real estate (see RealT), tokenised ownership of stocks, bonds and other financial assets (which by the way makes them tradable 24/7 and divisible unlike through the traditional system) or even tokenised ownership of the future income of a celebrity or athlete (see when NBA player Spencer Dinwiddie tokenized his own NBA contract.)

Institutional Adoption

Ethereum is by far the most widely adopted blockchain by enterprises. Ethereum’s Enterprise Ethereum Alliance (EEA) is the largest blockchain-enterprise partnership program and Ethereum is by far the most frequently leveraged blockchain for proof of concepts and innovation in the blockchain space by enterprises. Meanwhile, there are protocols like the Baseline protocol which is a shared framework which allows enterprises to use Ethereum as a common frame of reference and a base settlement layer without having to give up privacy when settling on the public Ethereum mainnet. This framework makes adopting Ethereum much easier for other enterprises.

Institutional Investment

One of Bitcoin’s biggest things it has going for it right now is the growing institutional investment. In case you were wondering, Ethereum has this too! Grayscale offers investment in the cryptocurrency space for financial institutions and their Ethereum fund has already locked up more than 2% of the total supply of ETH. Not only this, but as businesses transact on Ethereum and better understand it, not only will they buy up ETH to pay for their transactions, but they will also realise that much like Bitcoin, Ethereum is a scarce asset. Better yet, a scarce asset which offers yield. As a result, I expect to see companies having ETH holdings become the norm just like how Bitcoin is becoming more widespread on companies’ balance sheets.

The state of global markets

With asset prices in almost every asset class at or near all-time highs and interest rates lower than ever and even negative in some cases, there really aren’t many good opportunities in the traditional financial system right now. Enter crypto - clearly the next evolution of financial services (as I explained in the section on DeFi earlier in this post), with scarce assets built in at the protocol layer, buying BTC or ETH is a lot like buying shares in TCP/IP in 1990 (that is if the underlying protocols of the internet could be invested in which they couldn’t). Best of all, major cryptos are down from their all-time highs anywhere between 35% for BTC or 70% for ETH and much more for many altcoins. This means that they can significantly appreciate in value before entering uncharted, speculative bubble territory.
While of course we could fall dramatically at any moment in the current macro financial conditions, as a longer term play, crypto is very alluring. The existing financial system has shown that it is in dire need of replacing and the potential replacement has started rearing its head in the form of crypto and DeFi.

Improvements in user onboarding and abstracting away complexity

Ethereum has started making huge leaps forward in terms of usability for the end user. We now have ENS names and unstoppable domains which allow you to send ETH to yournamehere.ETH or TrickyTroll.crypto (I don’t actually have that domain, that’s just an example). No longer do you have to check every character of your ugly hexadecimal 0x43AB96D… ETH address to ensure you’re sending your ETH to the right person. We also have smart contract wallets like Argent wallet or the Gnosis safe. These allow for users to access their wallets and interact with DeFi self-custodially from an app on their phone without having to record a private key or recovery phrase. Instead, they offer social recovery and their UI is straight forward enough for anyone who uses a smart phone to understand. Finally, for the more experienced users, DApps like Uniswap have pretty, super easy to use graphical user interfaces and can be used by anyone who knows how to run and use a browser extension like Metamask.

The lack of an obvious #1 ETH killer

One of Ethereum’s biggest threats is for it to be overthrown by a so-called “Ethereum killer” blockchain which claims to do everything Ethereum can do and sometimes more. While there are competitors which are each formidable to a certain extent such as Polkadot, Cardano and EOS, each have their own weaknesses. For example, Polkadot and Cardano are not fully operational yet and EOS is much more centralised than Ethereum. As a result, none of these competitors have any significant network effects just yet relative to the behemoth which is Ethereum. This doesn’t mean that these projects aren’t a threat. In fact, I am sure that projects like Polkadot (which is more focused on complimenting Ethereum than killing it) will take a slice out of Ethereum’s pie. However, I am still very confident that Ethereum will remain on top due to the lack of a clear number 2 smart contract platform. Since none of these ETH killers stands out as the second place smart contract platform, it makes it much harder for one project to create a network effect which even begins to threaten Ethereum’s dominance. This leads me onto my next reason - network effects.

Network effects

This is another topic which I made a previous post on. The network effect is why Bitcoin is still the number one cryptocurrency and by such a long way. Bitcoin is not the most technologically advanced cryptocurrency. However, it has the most widespread name recognition and the most adoption in most metrics (ETH beats in in some metrics these days). The network effect is also why most people use Zoom and Facebook messengeWhatsApp despite the existence of free, private, end to end encrypted alternatives which have all the same features (Jitsi for the zoom alternative and Signal for the private messenger app. I highly recommend both. Let’s get their network effects going!). It is the same for Bitcoin. People don’t want to have to learn about or set up a wallet for alternative options. People like what is familiar and what other people use. Nobody wants to be “that guy” who makes you download yet another app and account you have to remember the password/private key for. In the same way, Enterprises don’t want to have to create a bridge between their existing systems and a dozen different blockchains. Developers don’t want to have to create DeFi money legos from scratch on a new chain if they can just plug in to existing services like Uniswap. Likewise, users don’t want to have to download another browser extension to use DApps on another chain if they already use Ethereum. I know personally I have refrained from investing in altcoins because I would have to install another app on my hardware wallet or remember another recovery phrase.
Overthrowing Ethereum’s network effect is one hell of a big task these days. Time is running out for the ETH killers.

Ethereum is the most decentralised and provably neutral smart contract platform

Ethereum is also arguably the most decentralised and provably neutral smart contract platform (except for maybe Ethereum Classic on the neutrality part). Unlike some smart contract platforms, you can’t round up everyone at the Ethereum Foundation or any select group of people and expect to be able to stop the network. Not only this, but the Ethereum foundation doesn’t have the ability to print more ETH or push through changes as they wish like some people would lead you on to believe. The community would reject detrimental EIPs and hard fork. Ever since the DAO hack, the Ethereum community has made it clear that it will not accept EIPs which attempt to roll back the chain even to recover hacked funds (see EIP-999).
Even if governments around the world wanted to censor the Ethereum blockchain, under ETH 2.0’s proof of stake, it would be incredibly costly and would require a double digit percentage of the total ETH supply, much of which would be slashed (meaning they would lose it) as punishment for running dishonest validator nodes. This means that unlike with proof of work where a 51% attacker can keep attacking the network, under proof of stake, an attacker can only perform the attack a couple of times before they lose all of their ETH. This makes attacks much less financially viable than it is on proof of work chains. Network security is much more than what I laid out above and I am far from an expert but the improved resistance to 51% attacks which PoS provides is significant.
Finally, with the US dollar looking like it will lose its reserve currency status and the existing wire transfer system being outdated, superpowers like China won’t want to use US systems and the US won’t want to use a Chinese system. Enter Ethereum, the provably neutral settlement layer where the USA and China don’t have to trust each other or each other’s banks because they can trust Ethereum. While it may sound like a long shot, it does make sense if Ethereum hits a multi-trillion dollar market cap that it is the most secure and neutral way to transfer value between these adversaries. Not to mention if much of the world’s commerce were to be settled in the same place - on Ethereum - then it would make sense for governments to settle on the same platform.

ETH distribution is decentralised

Thanks to over 5 years of proof of work - a system where miners have to sell newly minted ETH to pay for electricity costs - newly mined ETH has found its way into the hands of everyday people who buy ETH off miners selling on exchnages. As pointed out by u/AdamSC1 in his analysis of the top 10K ETH addresses (I highly recommend reading this if you haven’t already), the distribution of ETH is actually slightly more decentralised than Bitcoin with the top 10,000 ETH wallets holding 56.70% of ETH supply compared to the top 10,000 Bitcoin wallets which hold 57.44% of the Bitcoin supply. This decentralised distribution means that the introduction of staking won’t centralise ETH in the hands of a few wallets who could then control the network. This is an advantage for ETH which many proof of stake ETH killers will never have as they never used PoW to distribute funds widely throughout the community and these ETH killers often did funding rounds giving large numbers of tokens to VC investors.

The community

Finally, while I may be biased, I think that Ethereum has the friendliest community. Anecdotally, I find that the Ethereum developer community is full of forward thinking people who want to make the world a better place and build a better future, many of whom are altruistic and don’t always act in their best interests. Compare this to the much more conservative, “at least we’re safe while the world burns” attitude which many Bitcoiners have. I don’t want to generalise too much here as the Bitcoin community is great too and there are some wonderful people there. But the difference is clear if you compare the daily discussion of Bitcoin to the incredibly helpful and welcoming daily discussion of EthFinance who will happily answer your noob questions without calling you an idiot and telling you to do you own research (there are plenty more examples in any of the daily threads). Or the very helpful folks over at EthStaker who will go out of their way to help you set up an ETH 2.0 staking node on the testnets (Shoutout to u/superphiz who does a lot of work over in that sub!). Don’t believe me? Head over to those subs and see for yourself.
Please don’t hate on me if you disagree about which project has the best community, it is just my very biased personal opinion and I respect your opinion if you disagree! :)

TL;DR:

submitted by Tricky_Troll to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

A Detailed Summary of Every Single Reason Why I am Bullish on ETH.

The following will be a list of the many reasons why I hold and am extremely bullish on ETH.

This is an extremely long post. If you just want the hopium without the detail, read the TL;DR at the bottom.

ETH 2.0

As we all know, ETH 2.0 phase 0 is right around the corner. This will lock up ETH and stakers will earn interest on their ETH in return for securing the network. Next comes phase 1 where the ETH 2 shards are introduced, shards are essentially parallel blockchains which are each responsible for a different part of Ethereum’s workload, think of it like a multi-core processor vs a single core processor. During phase 1, these shards will only act as data availability layers and won’t actually process transactions yet. However, their data can be utilised by the L2 scaling solution, rollups, increasing Ethereum’s throughput in transactions per second up to 100,000 TPS.
After phase 1 comes phase 1.5 which will move the ETH 1.0 chain into an ETH 2 shard and Ethereum will be fully secured by proof of stake. This means that ETH issuance will drop from around 5% per year to less than 1% and with EIP-1559, ETH might become a deflationary asset, but more on that later.
Finally, with ETH 2.0 phase two, each shard will be fully functional chains. With 64 of them, we can expect the base layer of Ethereum to scale around 64x, not including the massive scaling which comes from layer 2 scaling solutions like rollups as previously mentioned.
While the scaling benefits and ETH issuance reduction which comes with ETH 2.0 will be massive, they aren’t the only benefits. We also get benefits such as increased security from PoS compared to PoW, a huge energy efficiency improvement due to the removal of PoW and also the addition of eWASM which will allow contracts to be programmed in a wide range of programming languages, opening the floodgates for millions of web devs who want to be involved in Ethereum but don’t know Ethereum’s programming language, Solidity.

EIP-1559 and ETH scarcity

As I covered in a previous post of mine, ETH doesn’t have a supply cap like Bitcoin. Instead, it has a monetary policy of “minimum viable issuance”, not only is this is a good thing for network security, but with the addition of EIP-1559, it leaves the door open to the possibility of ETH issuance going negative. In short, EIP-1559 changes the fee market to make transaction prices more efficient (helping to alleviate high gas fees!) by burning a variable base fee which changes based on network usage demand rather than using a highest bidder market where miners simply include who pays them the most. This will result in most of the ETH being paid in transaction fees being burned. As of late, the amount which would be burned if EIP-1559 was in Ethereum right now would make ETH a deflationary asset!

Layer 2 Scaling

In the mean time while we are waiting for ETH 2.0, layer 2 scaling is here. Right now, projects such as Deversifi or Loopring utilise rollups to scale to thousands of tx/s on their decentralised exchange platforms or HoneySwap which uses xDai to offer a more scalable alternative to UniSwap. Speaking of which, big DeFi players like UniSwap and Synthetix are actively looking into using optimistic rollups to scale while maintaining composability between DeFi platforms. The most bullish thing about L2 scaling is all of the variety of options. Here’s a non exhaustive list of Ethereum L2 scaling solutions: - Aztec protocol (L2 scaling + privacy!) - ZKSync - Loopring - Raiden - Arbitrum Rollups - xDai - OMGNetwork - Matic - FuelLabs - Starkware - Optimism - Celer Network - + Many more

DeFi and Composability

If you’re reading this, I am sure you are aware of the phenomena which is Decentralised Finance (DeFi or more accurately, open finance). Ethereum is the first platform to offer permissionless and immutable financial services which when interacting with each other, lead to unprecedented composability and innovation in financial applications. A whole new world of possibilities are opening up thanks to this composability as it allows anyone to take existing pieces of open source code from other DeFi projects, put them together like lego pieces (hence the term money legos) and create something the world has never seen before. None of this was possible before Ethereum because typically financial services are heavily regulated and FinTech is usually proprietary software, so you don’t have any open source lego bricks to build off and you have to build everything you need from scratch. That is if what you want to do is even legal for a centralised institution!
Oh, and if you think that DeFi was just a fad and the bubble has popped, guess again! Total value locked in DeFi is currently at an all time high. Don’t believe me? Find out for yourself at: https://defipulse.com

NFTs and tokeniation

NFTs or “Non-Fungible Tokens” - despite the name which may confuse a layman - are a basic concept. They are unique tokens with their own unique attributes. This allows you to create digital art, human readable names for your ETH address (see ENS names and unstoppable domains), breedable virtual collectible creatures like crypto kitties, ownable in game assets like Gods Unchained cards or best of all in my opinion, tokenised ownership of real world assets which can even be split into pieces (this doesn’t necessarily require an NFT. Fungible tokens can be/are used for some of the following use cases). This could be tokenised ownership of real estate (see RealT), tokenised ownership of stocks, bonds and other financial assets (which by the way makes them tradable 24/7 and divisible unlike through the traditional system) or even tokenised ownership of the future income of a celebrity or athlete (see when NBA Star Spencer Dinwiddie Tokenized His Own NBA Contract.

Institutional Adoption

Ethereum is by far the most widely adopted blockchain by enterprises. Ethereum’s Enterprise Ethereum Alliance (EEA) is the largest blockchain-enterprise partnership program and Ethereum is by far the most frequently leveraged blockchain for proof of concepts and innovation in the blockchain space by enterprises. Meanwhile, there are protocols like the Baseline protocol which is a shared framework which allows enterprises to use Ethereum as a common frame of reference and a base settlement layer without having to give up privacy when settling on the public Ethereum mainnet. This framework makes adopting Ethereum much easier for other enterprises.

Institutional Investment

One of Bitcoin’s biggest things it has going for it right now is the growing institutional investment. In case you were wondering, Ethereum has this too! Grayscale offers investment in the cryptocurrency space for financial institutions and their Ethereum fund has already locked up more than 2% of the total supply of ETH. Not only this, but as businesses transact on Ethereum and better understand it, not only will they buy up ETH to pay for their transactions, but they will also realise that much like Bitcoin, Ethereum is a scarce asset. Better yet, a scarce asset which offers yield. As a result, I expect to see companies having ETH holdings become the norm just like how Bitcoin is becoming more widespread on companies’ balance sheets.

The state of global markets

With asset prices in almost every asset class at or near all-time highs and interest rates lower than ever and even negative in some cases, there really aren’t many good opportunities in the traditional financial system right now. Enter crypto - clearly the next evolution of financial services (as I explained in the section on DeFi earlier in this post), with scarce assets built in at the protocol layer, buying BTC or ETH is a lot like buying shares in TCP/IP in 1990 (that is if the underlying protocols of the internet could be invested in which they couldn’t). Best of all, major cryptos are down from their all-time highs anywhere between 35% for BTC or 70% for ETH and much more for many altcoins. This means that they can significantly appreciate in value before entering uncharted, speculative bubble territory.
While of course we could fall dramatically at any moment in the current macro financial conditions, as a longer term play, crypto is very alluring. The existing financial system has shown that it is in dire need of replacing and the potential replacement has started rearing its head in the form of crypto and DeFi.

Improvements in user onboarding and abstracting away complexity

Ethereum has started making huge leaps forward in terms of usability for the end user. We now have ENS names and unstoppable domains which allow you to send ETH to yournamehere.ETH or TrickyTroll.crypto (I don’t actually have that domain, that’s just an example). No longer do you have to check every character of your ugly hexadecimal 0x43AB96D… ETH address to ensure you’re sending your ETH to the right person. We also have smart contract wallets like Argent wallet or the Gnosis safe. These allow for users to access their wallets and interact with DeFi self-custodially from an app on their phone without having to record a private key or recovery phrase. Instead, they offer social recovery and their UI is straight forward enough for anyone who uses a smart phone to understand. Finally, for the more experienced users, DApps like Uniswap have pretty, super easy to use graphical user interfaces and can be used by anyone who knows how to run and use a browser extension like Metamask.

The lack of an obvious #1 ETH killer

One of Ethereum’s biggest threats is for it to be overthrown by a so-called “Ethereum killer” blockchain which claims to do everything Ethereum can do and sometimes more. While there are competitors which are each formidable to a certain extent such as Polkadot, Cardano and EOS, each have their own weaknesses. For example, Polkadot and Cardano are not fully operational yet and EOS is much more centralised than Ethereum. As a result, none of these competitors have any significant network effects just yet relative to the behemoth which is Ethereum. This doesn’t mean that these projects aren’t a threat. In fact, I am sure that projects like Polkadot (which is more focused on complimenting Ethereum than killing it) will take a slice out of Ethereum’s pie. However, I am still very confident that Ethereum will remain on top due to the lack of a clear number 2 smart contract platform. Since none of these ETH killers stands out as the second place smart contract platform, it makes it much harder for one project to create a network effect which even begins to threaten Ethereum’s dominance. This leads me onto my next reason - network effects.

Network effects

This is another topic which I made a previous post on. The network effect is why Bitcoin is still the number one cryptocurrency and by such a long way. Bitcoin is not the most technologically advanced cryptocurrency. However, it has the most widespread name recognition and the most adoption in most metrics (ETH beats in in some metrics these days). The network effect is also why most people use Zoom and Facebook messengeWhatsApp despite the existence of free, private, end to end encrypted alternatives which have all the same features (https://meet.jit.si/ for zoom alternative and Signal for the private messenger app. I highly recommend both. Let’s get their network effects going!). It is the same for Bitcoin. People don’t want to have to learn about or set up a wallet for alternative options. People like what is familiar and what other people use. Nobody wants to be “that guy” who makes you download yet another app and account you have to remember the password/private key for. In the same way, Enterprises don’t want to have to create a bridge between their existing systems and a dozen different blockchains. Developers don’t want to have to create DeFi money legos from scratch on a new chain if they can just plug in to existing services like Uniswap. Likewise, users don’t want to have to download another browser extension to use DApps on another chain if they already use Ethereum. I know personally I have refrained from investing in altcoins because I would have to install another app on my hardware wallet or remember another recovery phrase.
Overthrowing Ethereum’s network effect is one hell of a big task these days. Time is running out for the ETH killers.

Ethereum is the most decentralised and provably neutral smart contract platform

Ethereum is also arguably the most decentralised and provably neutral smart contract platform (except for maybe Ethereum Classic on the neutrality part). Unlike some smart contract platforms, you can’t round up everyone at the Ethereum Foundation or any select group of people and expect to be able to stop the network. Not only this, but the Ethereum foundation doesn’t have the ability to print more ETH or push through changes as they wish like some people would lead you on to believe. The community would reject detrimental EIPs and hard fork. Ever since the DAO hack, the Ethereum community has made it clear that it will not accept EIPs which attempt to roll back the chain even to recover hacked funds (see EIP-999).
Even if governments around the world wanted to censor the Ethereum blockchain, under ETH 2.0’s proof of stake, it would be incredibly costly and would require a double digit percentage of the total ETH supply, much of which would be slashed (meaning they would lose it) as punishment for running dishonest validator nodes. This means that unlike with proof of work where a 51% attacker can keep attacking the network, under proof of stake, an attacker can only perform the attack a couple of times before they lose all of their ETH. This makes attacks much less financially viable than it is on proof of work chains. Network security is much more than what I laid out above and I am far from an expert but the improved resistance to 51% attacks which PoS provides is significant.
Finally, with the US dollar looking like it will lose its reserve currency status and the existing wire transfer system being outdated, superpowers like China won’t want to use US systems and the US won’t want to use a Chinese system. Enter Ethereum, the provably neutral settlement layer where the USA and China don’t have to trust each other or each other’s banks because they can trust Ethereum. While it may sound like a long shot, it does make sense if Ethereum hits a multi-trillion dollar market cap that it is the most secure and neutral way to transfer value between these adversaries. Not to mention if much of the world’s commerce were to be settled in the same place - on Ethereum - then it would make sense for governments to settle on the same platform.

ETH distribution is decentralised

Thanks to over 5 years of proof of work - a system where miners have to sell newly minted ETH to pay for electricity costs - newly mined ETH has found its way into the hands of everyday people who buy ETH off miners selling on exchnages. As pointed out by u/AdamSC1 in his analysis of the top 10K ETH addresses (I highly recommend reading this if you haven’t already), the distribution of ETH is actually slightly more decentralised than Bitcoin with the top 10,000 ETH wallets holding 56.70% of ETH supply compared to the top 10,000 Bitcoin wallets which hold 57.44% of the Bitcoin supply. This decentralised distribution means that the introduction of staking won’t centralise ETH in the hands of a few wallets who could then control the network. This is an advantage for ETH which many proof of stake ETH killers will never have as they never used PoW to distribute funds widely throughout the community and these ETH killers often did funding rounds giving large numbers of tokens to VC investors.

The community

Finally, while I may be biased, I think that Ethereum has the friendliest community. Anecdotally, I find that the Ethereum developer community is full of forward thinking people who want to make the world a better place and build a better future, many of whom are altruistic and don’t always act in their best interests. Compare this to the much more conservative, “at least we’re safe while the world burns” attitude which many Bitcoiners have. I don’t want to generalise too much here as the Bitcoin community is great too and there are some wonderful people there. But the difference is clear if you compare the daily discussion of Bitcoin to the incredibly helpful and welcoming daily discussion of EthFinance who will happily answer your noob questions without calling you an idiot and telling you to do you own research (there are plenty more examples in any of the daily threads). Or the very helpful folks over at EthStaker who will go out of their way to help you set up an ETH 2.0 staking node on the testnets (Shoutout to u/superphiz who does a lot of work over in that sub!). Don’t believe me? Head over to those subs and see for yourself.
Please don’t hate on me if you disagree about which project has the best community, it is just my very biased personal opinion and I respect your opinion if you disagree! :)

TL;DR:

submitted by Tricky_Troll to ethtrader [link] [comments]

A detailed summary of every reason why I am bullish on ETH.

The following will be a list of the many reasons why I hold and am extremely bullish on ETH.

This is an extremely long post. If you just want the hopium without the detail, read the TL;DR at the bottom.

ETH 2.0

As we all know, ETH 2.0 phase 0 is right around the corner. This will lock up ETH and stakers will earn interest on their ETH in return for securing the network. Next comes phase 1 where the ETH 2 shards are introduced, shards are essentially parallel blockchains which are each responsible for a different part of Ethereum’s workload, think of it like a multi-core processor vs a single core processor. During phase 1, these shards will only act as data availability layers and won’t actually process transactions yet. However, their data can be utilised by the L2 scaling solution, rollups, increasing Ethereum’s throughput in transactions per second up to 100,000 TPS.
After phase 1 comes phase 1.5 which will move the ETH 1.0 chain into an ETH 2 shard and Ethereum will be fully secured by proof of stake. This means that ETH issuance will drop from around 5% per year to less than 1% and with EIP-1559, ETH might become a deflationary asset, but more on that later.
Finally, with ETH 2.0 phase two, each shard will be fully functional chains. With 64 of them, we can expect the base layer of Ethereum to scale around 64x, not including the massive scaling which comes from layer 2 scaling solutions like rollups as previously mentioned.
While the scaling benefits and ETH issuance reduction which comes with ETH 2.0 will be massive, they aren’t the only benefits. We also get benefits such as increased security from PoS compared to PoW, a huge energy efficiency improvement due to the removal of PoW and also the addition of eWASM which will allow contracts to be programmed in a wide range of programming languages, opening the floodgates for millions of web devs who want to be involved in Ethereum but don’t know Ethereum’s programming language, Solidity.

EIP-1559 and ETH scarcity

As I covered in a previous post of mine, ETH doesn’t have a supply cap like Bitcoin. Instead, it has a monetary policy of “minimum viable issuance”, not only is this is a good thing for network security, but with the addition of EIP-1559, it leaves the door open to the possibility of ETH issuance going negative. In short, EIP-1559 changes the fee market to make transaction prices more efficient (helping to alleviate high gas fees!) by burning a variable base fee which changes based on network usage demand rather than using a highest bidder market where miners simply include who pays them the most. This will result in most of the ETH being paid in transaction fees being burned. As of late, the amount which would be burned if EIP-1559 was in Ethereum right now would make ETH a deflationary asset!

Layer 2 Scaling

In the mean time while we are waiting for ETH 2.0, layer 2 scaling is here. Right now, projects such as Deversifi or Loopring utilise rollups to scale to thousands of tx/s on their decentralised exchange platforms or HoneySwap which uses xDai to offer a more scalable alternative to UniSwap. Speaking of which, big DeFi players like UniSwap and Synthetix are actively looking into using optimistic rollups to scale while maintaining composability between DeFi platforms. The most bullish thing about L2 scaling is all of the variety of options. Here’s a non exhaustive list of Ethereum L2 scaling solutions: - Aztec protocol (L2 scaling + privacy!) - ZKSync - Loopring - Raiden - Arbitrum Rollups - xDai - OMGNetwork - Matic - FuelLabs - Starkware - Optimism - Celer Network - + Many more

DeFi and Composability

If you’re reading this, I am sure you are aware of the phenomena which is Decentralised Finance (DeFi or more accurately, open finance). Ethereum is the first platform to offer permissionless and immutable financial services which when interacting with each other, lead to unprecedented composability and innovation in financial applications. A whole new world of possibilities are opening up thanks to this composability as it allows anyone to take existing pieces of open source code from other DeFi projects, put them together like lego pieces (hence the term money legos) and create something the world has never seen before. None of this was possible before Ethereum because typically financial services are heavily regulated and FinTech is usually proprietary software, so you don’t have any open source lego bricks to build off and you have to build everything you need from scratch. That is if what you want to do is even legal for a centralised institution!
Oh, and if you think that DeFi was just a fad and the bubble has popped, guess again! Total value locked in DeFi is currently at an all time high. Don’t believe me? Find out for yourself at: https://defipulse.com

NFTs and tokeniation

NFTs or “Non-Fungible Tokens” - despite the name which may confuse a layman - are a basic concept. They are unique tokens with their own unique attributes. This allows you to create digital art, human readable names for your ETH address (see ENS names and unstoppable domains), breedable virtual collectible creatures like crypto kitties, ownable in game assets like Gods Unchained cards or best of all in my opinion, tokenised ownership of real world assets which can even be split into pieces (this doesn’t necessarily require an NFT. Fungible tokens can be/are used for some of the following use cases). This could be tokenised ownership of real estate (see RealT), tokenised ownership of stocks, bonds and other financial assets (which by the way makes them tradable 24/7 and divisible unlike through the traditional system) or even tokenised ownership of the future income of a celebrity or athlete (see when NBA Star Spencer Dinwiddie Tokenized His Own NBA Contract.

Institutional Adoption

Ethereum is by far the most widely adopted blockchain by enterprises. Ethereum’s Enterprise Ethereum Alliance (EEA) is the largest blockchain-enterprise partnership program and Ethereum is by far the most frequently leveraged blockchain for proof of concepts and innovation in the blockchain space by enterprises. Meanwhile, there are protocols like the Baseline protocol which is a shared framework which allows enterprises to use Ethereum as a common frame of reference and a base settlement layer without having to give up privacy when settling on the public Ethereum mainnet. This framework makes adopting Ethereum much easier for other enterprises.

Institutional Investment

One of Bitcoin’s biggest things it has going for it right now is the growing institutional investment. In case you were wondering, Ethereum has this too! Grayscale offers investment in the cryptocurrency space for financial institutions and their Ethereum fund has already locked up more than 2% of the total supply of ETH. Not only this, but as businesses transact on Ethereum and better understand it, not only will they buy up ETH to pay for their transactions, but they will also realise that much like Bitcoin, Ethereum is a scarce asset. Better yet, a scarce asset which offers yield. As a result, I expect to see companies having ETH holdings become the norm just like how Bitcoin is becoming more widespread on companies’ balance sheets.

The state of global markets

With asset prices in almost every asset class at or near all-time highs and interest rates lower than ever and even negative in some cases, there really aren’t many good opportunities in the traditional financial system right now. Enter crypto - clearly the next evolution of financial services (as I explained in the section on DeFi earlier in this post), with scarce assets built in at the protocol layer, buying BTC or ETH is a lot like buying shares in TCP/IP in 1990 (that is if the underlying protocols of the internet could be invested in which they couldn’t). Best of all, major cryptos are down from their all-time highs anywhere between 35% for BTC or 70% for ETH and much more for many altcoins. This means that they can significantly appreciate in value before entering uncharted, speculative bubble territory.
While of course we could fall dramatically at any moment in the current macro financial conditions, as a longer term play, crypto is very alluring. The existing financial system has shown that it is in dire need of replacing and the potential replacement has started rearing its head in the form of crypto and DeFi.

Improvements in user onboarding and abstracting away complexity

Ethereum has started making huge leaps forward in terms of usability for the end user. We now have ENS names and unstoppable domains which allow you to send ETH to yournamehere.ETH or TrickyTroll.crypto (I don’t actually have that domain, that’s just an example). No longer do you have to check every character of your ugly hexadecimal 0x43AB96D… ETH address to ensure you’re sending your ETH to the right person. We also have smart contract wallets like Argent wallet or the Gnosis safe. These allow for users to access their wallets and interact with DeFi self-custodially from an app on their phone without having to record a private key or recovery phrase. Instead, they offer social recovery and their UI is straight forward enough for anyone who uses a smart phone to understand. Finally, for the more experienced users, DApps like Uniswap have pretty, super easy to use graphical user interfaces and can be used by anyone who knows how to run and use a browser extension like Metamask.

The lack of an obvious #1 ETH killer

One of Ethereum’s biggest threats is for it to be overthrown by a so-called “Ethereum killer” blockchain which claims to do everything Ethereum can do and sometimes more. While there are competitors which are each formidable to a certain extent such as Polkadot, Cardano and EOS, each have their own weaknesses. For example, Polkadot and Cardano are not fully operational yet and EOS is much more centralised than Ethereum. As a result, none of these competitors have any significant network effects just yet relative to the behemoth which is Ethereum. This doesn’t mean that these projects aren’t a threat. In fact, I am sure that projects like Polkadot (which is more focused on complimenting Ethereum than killing it) will take a slice out of Ethereum’s pie. However, I am still very confident that Ethereum will remain on top due to the lack of a clear number 2 smart contract platform. Since none of these ETH killers stands out as the second place smart contract platform, it makes it much harder for one project to create a network effect which even begins to threaten Ethereum’s dominance. This leads me onto my next reason - network effects.

Network effects

This is another topic which I made a previous post on. The network effect is why Bitcoin is still the number one cryptocurrency and by such a long way. Bitcoin is not the most technologically advanced cryptocurrency. However, it has the most widespread name recognition and the most adoption in most metrics (ETH beats in in some metrics these days). The network effect is also why most people use Zoom and Facebook messengeWhatsApp despite the existence of free, private, end to end encrypted alternatives which have all the same features (https://meet.jit.si/ for zoom alternative and Signal for the private messenger app. I highly recommend both. Let’s get their network effects going!). It is the same for Bitcoin. People don’t want to have to learn about or set up a wallet for alternative options. People like what is familiar and what other people use. Nobody wants to be “that guy” who makes you download yet another app and account you have to remember the password/private key for. In the same way, Enterprises don’t want to have to create a bridge between their existing systems and a dozen different blockchains. Developers don’t want to have to create DeFi money legos from scratch on a new chain if they can just plug in to existing services like Uniswap. Likewise, users don’t want to have to download another browser extension to use DApps on another chain if they already use Ethereum. I know personally I have refrained from investing in altcoins because I would have to install another app on my hardware wallet or remember another recovery phrase.
Overthrowing Ethereum’s network effect is one hell of a big task these days. Time is running out for the ETH killers.

Ethereum is the most decentralised and provably neutral smart contract platform

Ethereum is also arguably the most decentralised and provably neutral smart contract platform (except for maybe Ethereum Classic on the neutrality part). Unlike some smart contract platforms, you can’t round up everyone at the Ethereum Foundation or any select group of people and expect to be able to stop the network. Not only this, but the Ethereum foundation doesn’t have the ability to print more ETH or push through changes as they wish like some people would lead you on to believe. The community would reject detrimental EIPs and hard fork. Ever since the DAO hack, the Ethereum community has made it clear that it will not accept EIPs which attempt to roll back the chain even to recover hacked funds (see EIP-999).
Even if governments around the world wanted to censor the Ethereum blockchain, under ETH 2.0’s proof of stake, it would be incredibly costly and would require a double digit percentage of the total ETH supply, much of which would be slashed (meaning they would lose it) as punishment for running dishonest validator nodes. This means that unlike with proof of work where a 51% attacker can keep attacking the network, under proof of stake, an attacker can only perform the attack a couple of times before they lose all of their ETH. This makes attacks much less financially viable than it is on proof of work chains. Network security is much more than what I laid out above and I am far from an expert but the improved resistance to 51% attacks which PoS provides is significant.
Finally, with the US dollar looking like it will lose its reserve currency status and the existing wire transfer system being outdated, superpowers like China won’t want to use US systems and the US won’t want to use a Chinese system. Enter Ethereum, the provably neutral settlement layer where the USA and China don’t have to trust each other or each other’s banks because they can trust Ethereum. While it may sound like a long shot, it does make sense if Ethereum hits a multi-trillion dollar market cap that it is the most secure and neutral way to transfer value between these adversaries. Not to mention if much of the world’s commerce were to be settled in the same place - on Ethereum - then it would make sense for governments to settle on the same platform.

ETH distribution is decentralised

Thanks to over 5 years of proof of work - a system where miners have to sell newly minted ETH to pay for electricity costs - newly mined ETH has found its way into the hands of everyday people who buy ETH off miners selling on exchnages. As pointed out by u/AdamSC1 in his analysis of the top 10K ETH addresses (I highly recommend reading this if you haven’t already), the distribution of ETH is actually slightly more decentralised than Bitcoin with the top 10,000 ETH wallets holding 56.70% of ETH supply compared to the top 10,000 Bitcoin wallets which hold 57.44% of the Bitcoin supply. This decentralised distribution means that the introduction of staking won’t centralise ETH in the hands of a few wallets who could then control the network. This is an advantage for ETH which many proof of stake ETH killers will never have as they never used PoW to distribute funds widely throughout the community and these ETH killers often did funding rounds giving large numbers of tokens to VC investors.

The community

Finally, while I may be biased, I think that Ethereum has the friendliest community. Anecdotally, I find that the Ethereum developer community is full of forward thinking people who want to make the world a better place and build a better future, many of whom are altruistic and don’t always act in their best interests. Compare this to the much more conservative, “at least we’re safe while the world burns” attitude which many Bitcoiners have. I don’t want to generalise too much here as the Bitcoin community is great too and there are some wonderful people there. But the difference is clear if you compare the daily discussion of Bitcoin to the incredibly helpful and welcoming daily discussion of EthFinance who will happily answer your noob questions without calling you an idiot and telling you to do you own research (there are plenty more examples in any of the daily threads). Or the very helpful folks over at EthStaker who will go out of their way to help you set up an ETH 2.0 staking node on the testnets (Shoutout to u/superphiz who does a lot of work over in that sub!). Don’t believe me? Head over to those subs and see for yourself.
Please don’t hate on me if you disagree about which project has the best community, it is just my very biased personal opinion and I respect your opinion if you disagree! :)

TL;DR:

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Fidelity Digital Investments: Bitcoin As an Aspirational Store of Value System

Interesting thesis from Fidelity's Digital Assets research head where they examine the factors that make bitcoin appealing as a potential store of value. I've highlighted some of the key points but I suggest people read the entire report.
In this piece, we will focus on the view that Bitcoin is an aspirational store of value. We explore the inherent characteristics that position Bitcoin to fulfill this role in the future, consider whether it is being used in this way today, and discuss factors that may drive greater demand for such utility.
Bitcoin’s digital scarcity
A robust store of value asset retains purchasing power over long periods of time. An emerging store of value grows purchasing power until it stabilizes. The key characteristics that are cited in reference to good stores of value are scarcity, portability, durability and divisibility. The most important of these attributes is arguably scarcity, which is essential for protecting against the depreciation of real value in the long run. Scarcity means there is a limited quantity of the asset in question, more cannot be easily created, and it is impossible to counterfeit.
One of bitcoin’s most novel innovations is its unforgeable digital scarcity. Investors believe this property is foundational in understanding and appreciating bitcoin.
The bitcoin supply is perfectly inelastic and is not susceptible to supply shocks. Supply does not respond to changes in production capacity (i.e. greater hash power) in response to heightened demand driving prices higher. Even gold, which has been used as a store of value for millennia, is not immune to supply shocks. While the ability for increased production in response to an increase in demand is limited, gold is not perfectly inelastic.
Decentralized checks and balances
Bitcoin’s monetary policy was established when it was created. Its credibility is enforced in part by decentralization and proof-of-work mining. Bitcoin has a leaderless network of decentralized full nodes (computers running bitcoin software), in which every node stores the ledger of transactions and performs transaction verification independently, checking that rules are being followed. Because of this redundancy, there is no central point of failure. Full nodes that verify transactions are distinct from miners who expend energy to process transactions and mint bitcoin. Unlike mining, transaction verification does not require significant resources in the form of hardware or electricity. Thus, any computer can join the distributed network to store and verify bitcoin transactions. Today tens of thousands of nodes perform this function.
In addition to preventing transactions that don’t follow consensus rules, the level of decentralization that exists in the bitcoin network protects core properties such as the 21 million fixed supply by making it virtually impossible to change. No central party has sole discretion over bitcoin’s monetary policy. Rather, such a change would require significant social coordination among stakeholders (e.g. users, miners and those running full nodes). Most stakeholders believe bitcoin has value because of its digital scarcity, resulting in negligible support for such a change
DEMAND DRIVERS
Investors believe that the next wave of awareness and adoption could be driven by external factors such as unprecedented levels of intervention by central banks and governments, record low interest rates, increasing fiat money supply, deglobalization and the potential for ensuing inflation, all of which have been accelerated by the pandemic and economic shutdown. Longer-term tailwinds that could fuel adoption include the use of bitcoin to preserve wealth amidst “slow and steady” inflation and the looming generational wealth transfer to millennials, who view bitcoin more favorably than other demographics.
Current interest in bitcoin’s store of value properties
Tudor Investment Corporation’s decision to allocate to bitcoin in the Tudor BVI fund is evidence that unprecedented levels of monetary growth is driving institutional interest in bitcoin’s store of value properties. Paul Tudor Jones, founder and Chief Investment Officer, and Lorenzo Giorgianni, Head of Global Research articulated the rationale for investing in bitcoin in their May 2020 investor letter, “The Great Monetary Inflation.” The Tudor Investments team scored financial assets, fiat cash, gold and bitcoin based on four characteristics that define store of value assets – purchasing power, trustworthiness, liquidity, portability. Bitcoin’s score was 60% of the score of financial assets, but 1/1200th of the market cap of financial assets and it was 66% of the score of gold, but 1/60th of the market cap, concluding, “Something appears to be wrong here and my guess is that it’s the price of Bitcoin.” While many have expressed the same reasoning, this was seen as a watershed moment, given the thesis and investment was from a traditional hedge fund manage legendary macro investor (Paul Tudor Jones) and former Deputy Director of the Strategy, Policy and Review Department at the IMF (Lorenzo Giorgianni)ix.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s inherent properties have given rise to the perspective that bitcoin has the potential to be a store of value, with complementary and interdependent components – the decentralized settlement network (Bitcoin) and its digitally scarce native asset (bitcoin). Equally important is the consideration of demand for bitcoin’s unique features – there is no long-term value to create or store if there is no sustained demand for these properties.
External forces that are accelerating interest and investment in bitcoin include unprecedented levels and exotic forms of monetary and fiscal stimulus globally with unknown consequences. This is exacerbating the concerns that Bitcoin was designed to address and is leading more investors and users towards bitcoin as an “insurance policy” that may provide protection against the unknown consequences. Simultaneously, the massive transfer of wealth from the older generation to a younger demographic is a more gradual but important long-term tailwind, as younger people view bitcoin more favorably. This is an important catalyst for bitcoin adoption as they inherit and grow their wealth. While bitcoin is not guaranteed to succeed as a store of value, should sustainable long-term demand for the use case not materialize, the tailwinds mentioned above should drive incremental demand for a novel asset with unique properties. Additionally, as we will examine in future parts in our bitcoin investment thesis series, Bitcoin’s strength is that it has properties that allow it to serve multiple functions, further hardening the likelihood of its success as measured by growth in value.
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The Great Bitcoin Bull Market Of 2017 by Trace Mayer

By: Trace Mayer, host of The Bitcoin Knowledge Podcast.
Originally posted here with images and Youtube videos.
I just got back from a two week vacation without Internet as I was scouring some archeological ruins. I hardly thought about Bitcoin at all because there were so many other interesting things and it would be there when I got back.
Jimmy Song suggested I do an article on the current state of Bitcoin. A great suggestion but he is really smart (he worked on Armory after all!) so I better be thorough and accurate!
Therefore, this article will be pretty lengthy and meticulous.
BACKGROUND
As I completely expected, the 2X movement from the New York Agreement that was supposed to happen during the middle of my vacation flopped on its face because Jeff Garzik was driving the clown car with passengers willfully inside like Coinbase, Blockchain.info, Bitgo and Xapo and there were here massive bugS and in the code and miners like Bitmain did not want to allocate $150-350m to get it over the difficulty adjustments.
I am very disappointed in their lack of integrity with putting their money where their mouths are; myself and many others wanted to sell a lot of B2X for BTC!
On 7 December 2015, with Bitcoin trading at US$388.40, I wrote The Rise of the Fourth Great Bitcoin Bubble. On 4 December 2016, with Bitcoin trading at US$762.97, I did this interview:

As of 26 November 2017, Bitcoin is trading around US$9,250.00. That is an increase of about 2,400% since I wrote the article prognosticating this fourth great Bitcoin bull market. I sure like being right, like usual (19 Dec 2011, 1 Jul 2013), especially when there are financial and economic consequences.
With such massive gains in such a short period of time the speculative question becomes: Buy, Hold or Sell?
FUNDAMENTALS
Bitcoin is the decentralized censorship-resistant Internet Protocol for transferring value over a communications channel.
The Bitcoin network can use traditional Internet infrastructure. However, it is even more resilient because it has custom infrastructure including, thanks to Bitcoin Core developer Matt Corrallo, the FIBRE network and, thanks to Blockstream, satellites which reduce the cost of running a full-node anywhere in the world to essentially nothing in terms of money or privacy. Transactions can be cheaply broadcast via SMS messages.
SECURITY
The Bitcoin network has a difficulty of 1,347,001,430,559 which suggests about 9,642,211 TH/s of custom ASIC hardware deployed.
At a retail price of approximately US$105/THs that implies about $650m of custom ASIC hardware deployed (35% discount applied).
This custom hardware consumes approximately 30 TWh per year. That could power about 2.8m US households or the entire country of Morocco which has a population of 33.85m.
This Bitcoin mining generates approximately 12.5 bitcoins every 10 minutes or approximately 1,800 per day worth approximately US$16,650,000.
Bitcoin currently has a market capitalization greater than $150B which puts it solidly in the top-30 of M1 money stock countries and a 200 day moving average of about $65B which is increasing about $500m per day.
Average daily volumes for Bitcoin is around US$5B. That means multi-million dollar positions can be moved into and out of very easily with minimal slippage.
When my friend Andreas Antonopolous was unable to give his talk at a CRYPSA event I was invited to fill in and delivered this presentation, impromptu, on the Seven Network Effects of Bitcoin.
These seven network effects of Bitcoin are (1) Speculation, (2) Merchants, (3) Consumers, (4) Security [miners], (5) Developers, (6) Financialization and (7) Settlement Currency are all taking root at the same time and in an incredibly intertwined way.
With only the first network effect starting to take significant root; Bitcoin is no longer a little experiment of magic Internet money anymore. Bitcoin is monster growing at a tremendous rate!!

SPECULATION
For the Bitcoin price to remain at $9,250 it requires approximately US$16,650,000 per day of capital inflow from new hodlers.
Bitcoin is both a Giffen good and a Veblen good.
A Giffen good is a product that people consume more of as the price rises and vice versa — seemingly in violation of basic laws of demand in microeconomics such as with substitute goods and the income effect.
Veblen goods are types of luxury goods for which the quantity demanded increases as the price increases in an apparent contradiction of the law of demand.
There are approximately 16.5m bitcoins of which ~4m are lost, ~4-6m are in deep cold storage, ~4m are in cold storage and ~2-4m are salable.
(http://www.runtogold.com/images/lost-bitcoins-1.jpg)
(http://www.runtogold.com/images/lost-bitcoins-2.jpg)
And forks like BCash (BCH) should not be scary but instead be looked upon as an opportunity to take more territory on the Bitcoin blockchain by trading the forks for real bitcoins which dries up more salable supply by moving it, likely, into deep cold storage.
According to Wikipedia, there are approximately 15.4m millionaires in the United States and about 12m HNWIs ($30m+ net worth) in the world. In other words, if every HNWI in the world wanted to own an entire bitcoin as a 'risk-free asset' that cannot be confiscated, seized or have the balance other wise altered then they could not.
For wise portfolio management, these HNWIs should have at least about 2-5% in gold and 0.5-1% in bitcoin.
Why? Perhaps some of the 60+ Saudis with 1,700 frozen bank accounts and about $800B of assets being targetted might be able to explain it to you.
In other words, everyone loves to chase the rabbit and once they catch it then know that it will not get away.
RETAIL
There are approximately 150+ significant Bitcoin exchanges worldwide. Kraken, according to the CEO, was adding about 6,000 new funded accounts per day in July 2017.
Supposedly, Coinbase is currently adding about 75,000 new accounts per day. Based on some trade secret analytics I have access to; I would estimate Coinbase is adding approximately 17,500 new accounts per day that purchase at least US$100 of Bitcoin.
If we assume Coinbase accounts for 8% of new global Bitcoin users who purchase at least $100 of bitcoins (just pulled out of thin error and likely very conservative as the actual number is perhaps around 2%) then that is approximately $21,875,000 of new capital coming into Bitcoin every single day just from retail demand from 218,750 total new accounts.
What I have found is that most new users start off buying US$100-500 and then after 3-4 months months they ramp up their capital allocation to $5,000+ if they have the funds available.
After all, it takes some time and practical experience to learn how to safely secure one's private keys.
To do so, I highly recommend Bitcoin Core (network consensus and full validation of the blockchain), Armory (private key management), Glacier Protocol (operational procedures) and a Puri.sm laptop (secure non-specialized hardware).
WALL STREET
There has been no solution for large financial fiduciaries to invest in Bitcoin. This changed November 2017.
LedgerX, whose CEO I interviewed 23 March 2013, began trading as a CFTC regulated Swap Execution Facility and Derivatives Clearing Organization.
The CME Group announced they will begin trading in Q4 2017 Bitcoin futures.
The CBOE announced they will begin trading Bitcoin futures soon.
By analogy, these institutional products are like connecting a major metropolis's water system (US$90.4T and US$2 quadrillion) via a nanoscopic shunt to a tiny blueberry ($150B) that is infinitely expandable.
This price discovery could be the most wild thing anyone has ever experienced in financial markets.
THE GREAT CREDIT CONTRACTION
The same week Bitcoin was released I published my book The Great Credit Contraction and asserted it had now begun and capital would burrow down the liquidity pyramid into safer and more liquid assets.
(http://www.runtogold.com/images/Great-Credit-Contraction-Liquidity-Pyramid.jpg)
Thus, the critical question becomes: Is Bitcoin a possible solution to the Great Credit Contraction by becoming the safest and most liquid asset?
BITCOIN'S RISK PROFILE
At all times and in all circumstances gold remains money but, of course, there is always exchange rate risk due to price ratios constantly fluctuating. If the metal is held with a third-party in allocated-allocated storage (safest possible) then there is performance risk (Morgan Stanley gold storage lawsuit).
But, if properly held then, there should be no counter-party risk which requires the financial ability of a third-party to perform like with a bank account deposit. And, since gold exists at a single point in space and time therefore it is subject to confiscation or seizure risk.
Bitcoin is a completely new asset type. As such, the storage container is nearly empty with only $150B.
And every Bitcoin transaction effectively melts down every BTC and recasts it; thus ensuring with 100% accuracy the quantity and quality of the bitcoins. If the transaction is not on the blockchain then it did not happen. This is the strictest regulation possible; by math and cryptography!
This new immutable asset, if properly secured, is subject only to exchange rate risk. There does exist the possibility that a software bug may exist that could shut down the network, like what has happened with Ethereum, but the probability is almost nil and getting lower everyday it does not happen.
Thus, Bitcoin arguably has a lower risk profile than even gold and is the only blockchain to achieve security, scalability and liquidity.
To remain decentralized, censorship-resistant and immutable requires scalability so as many users as possible can run full-nodes.
(http://www.runtogold.com/images/ethereum-bitcoin-scability-nov-2017.png)
TRANSACTIONS
Some people, probably mostly those shilling alt-coins, think Bitcoin has a scalability problem that is so serious it requires a crude hard fork to solve.
On the other side of the debate, the Internet protocol and blockchain geniuses assert the scalability issues can, like other Internet Protocols have done, be solved in different layers which are now possible because of Segregated Witness which was activated in August 2017.
Whose code do you want to run: the JV benchwarmers or the championship Chicago Bulls?
As transaction fees rise, certain use cases of the Bitcoin blockchain are priced out of the market. And as the fees fall then they are economical again.
Additionally, as transaction fees rise, certain UTXOs are no longer economically usable thus destroying part of the money supply until fees decline and UTXOs become economical to move.
There are approximately 275,000-350,000 transactions per day with transaction fees currently about $2m/day and the 200 DMA is around $1.08m/day.
(http://www.runtogold.com/images/bitcoin-transaction-fees-nov-2017.png)
What I like about transaction fees is that they somewhat reveal the financial health of the network.
The security of the Bitcoin network results from the miners creating solutions to proof of work problems in the Bitcoin protocol and being rewarded from the (1) coinbase reward which is a form of inflation and (2) transaction fees which is a form of usage fee.
The higher the transaction fees then the greater implied value the Bitcoin network provides because users are willing to pay more for it.
I am highly skeptical of blockchains which have very low transaction fees. By Internet bubble analogy, Pets.com may have millions of page views but I am more interested in EBITDA.
DEVELOPERS
Bitcoin and blockchain programming is not an easy skill to acquire and master. Most developers who have the skill are also financially independent now and can work on whatever they want.
The best of the best work through the Bitcoin Core process. After all, if you are a world class mountain climber then you do not hang out in the MacDonalds play pen but instead climb Mount Everest because that is where the challenge is.
However, there are many talented developers who work in other areas besides the protocol. Wallet maintainers, exchange operators, payment processors, etc. all need competent developers to help build their businesses.
Consequently, there is a huge shortage of competent developers. This is probably the largest single scalability constraint for the ecosystem.
Nevertheless, the Bitcoin ecosystem is healthier than ever before.
(http://www.runtogold.com/images/bitcoin-ecosystem.jpg)(/images/bitcoin-ecosystem-small.jpg)
SETTLEMENT CURRENCY
There are no significant global reserve settlement currency use cases for Bitcoin yet.
Perhaps the closest is Blockstream's Strong Federations via Liquid.
PRICE
There is a tremendous amount of disagreement in the marketplace about the value proposition of Bitcoin. Price discovery for this asset will be intense and likely take many cycles of which this is the fourth.
Since the supply is known the exchange rate of Bitcoins is composed of (1) transactional demand and (2) speculative demand.
Interestingly, the price elasticity of demand for the transactional demand component is irrelevant to the price. This makes for very interesting dynamics!
(http://www.runtogold.com/images/bitcoin-speculation.jpg)
On 4 May 2017, Lightspeed Venture Partners partner Jeremy Liew who was among the early Facebook investors and the first Snapchat investor laid out their case for bitcoin exploding to $500,000 by 2030.
On 2 November 2017, Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-02/blankfein-says-don-t-dismiss-bitcoin-while-still-pondering-value)said, "Now we have paper that is just backed by fiat...Maybe in the new world, something gets backed by consensus."
On 12 Sep 2017, JP Morgan CEO called Bitcoin a 'fraud' but conceded that "(http://fortune.com/2017/09/12/jamie-dimon-bitcoin-cryptocurrency-fraud-buy/)Bitcoin could reach $100,000".
Thus, it is no surprise that the Bitcoin chart looks like a ferret on meth when there are such widely varying opinions on its value proposition.
I have been around this space for a long time. In my opinion, those who scoffed at the thought of $1 BTC, $10 BTC (Professor Bitcorn!), $100 BTC, $1,000 BTC are scoffing at $10,000 BTC and will scoff at $100,000 BTC, $1,000,000 BTC and even $10,000,000 BTC.
Interestingly, the people who understand it the best seem to think its financial dominance is destiny.
Meanwhile, those who understand it the least make emotionally charged, intellectually incoherent bearish arguments. A tremendous example of worldwide cognitive dissonance with regards to sound money, technology and the role or power of the State.
Consequently, I like looking at the 200 day moving average to filter out the daily noise and see the long-term trend.
(http://www.runtogold.com/images/bitcoin-price-200dma-nov-2017.png)
Well, that chart of the long-term trend is pretty obvious and hard to dispute. Bitcoin is in a massive secular bull market.
The 200 day moving average is around $4,001 and rising about $30 per day.
So, what do some proforma situations look like where Bitcoin may be undervalued, average valued and overvalued? No, these are not prognostications.
(http://www.runtogold.com/images/bitcoin-price-pro-forma.png)
Maybe Jamie Dimon is not so off his rocker after all with a $100,000 price prediction.
We are in a very unique period of human history where the collective globe is rethinking what money is and Bitcoin is in the ring battling for complete domination. Is or will it be fit for purpose?
As I have said many times before, if Bitcoin is fit for this purpose then this is the largest wealth transfer in the history of the world.
CONCLUSION
Well, this has been a brief analysis of where I think Bitcoin is at the end of November 2017.
The seven network effects are taking root extremely fast and exponentially reinforcing each other. The technological dominance of Bitcoin is unrivaled.
The world is rethinking what money is. Even CEOs of the largest banks and partners of the largest VC funds are honing in on Bitcoin's beacon.
While no one has a crystal ball; when I look in mine I see Bitcoin's future being very bright.
Currently, almost everyone who has bought Bitcoin and hodled is sitting on unrealized gains as measured in fiat currency. That is, after all, what uncharted territory with daily all-time highs do!
But perhaps there is a larger lesson to be learned here.
Riches are getting increasingly slippery because no one has a reliable defined tool to measure them with. Times like these require incredible amounts of humility and intelligence guided by macro instincts.
Perhaps everyone should start keeping books in three numéraires: USD, gold and Bitcoin.
Both gold and Bitcoin have never been worth nothing. But USD is a fiat currency and there are thousands of those in the fiat currency graveyard. How low can the world reserve currency go?
After all, what is the risk-free asset? And, whatever it is, in The Great Credit Contraction you want it!
What do you think? Disagree with some of my arguments or assertions? Please, eviscerate them on Twitter or in the comments!
submitted by bitcoinknowledge to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Mining Bitcoin - The Coming Environmental Subsidy

Mining Bitcoin - The Coming Environmental Subsidy.
Mining Bitcoin incentives one to stake hardware and electricity in return for digital assets, which have or can have a market price that exceeds the cost of the electricity staked. Bitcoin is an uncorrelated hedge against the world economy, it’s programmable scarcity, not perceived scarcity, and is perhaps the hardest money the world has ever seen. Coming and developing second layer protocols for Bitcoin will execute transactions at the speed of light, and for virtually no cost. In time a decentralized economy will become our new reality, and networks will be owned by their users. There will be lighter weight consensus algorithms for most networks, but Proof Of Work, and in turn Bitcoin, will be the internets reserve currency, and what we peg the value of all decentralized networks to in the coming “Web 3” world. Bitcoin is here to stay, and Bitcoin mining presents a new opportunity in renewable energy.
Today, miners are moving as fast as they can to scale, lower their power cost, and decrease counter party risk. We are seeing a trend with miners setting up modular data centres behind the meter, tucked up to power plants that are located in areas where capacity is not in line with local demand, so miners become an obvious choice to churn through the surplus capacity of these plants. The issue here as it pertains to “environmental concern” is that miners cannot enter into energy purchase agreements (EPA’s) with plants that produce renewable power intermittently. So the result, we have mining farms finding blocks with coal or gas. Operators setting up such mining infrastructure often cite opportunity cost, which is definitely understandable, but irrespective of environmental hazard, the opportunity & economics of mining with fossil fuels will be short lived. Additionally these fossil fuel miners are beginning to face major counter party risk. Buying power to mine from major corporations, public utilities, or governments is convoluted and risky. Even one day without access to electricity can affect the bottom line, miners must begin thinking about energy independence. In the next 5 years setting up or sustaining a fossil fuel farm will be akin to thinking its a good idea to open and run a blockbuster video.
There are two major changes happening now in mining, and these changes will be the principal underwriters of Bitcoins coming “Environmental Subsidy”.
  1. Cost reductions in renewables & storage.
  2. The decentralization of mining.
In 2009 the global average cost to produce a Mwh of Solar was $350, in 2018 it was $50. The global average for coal production in 2018 was $100 per Mwh. Couple the declining cost bases for renewables with supportive policy and subsidies, and from a more macro POV its obvious where were going in terms of the type of energy that will be flowing into the grid. Although the sun doesn’t always shine and the wind doesn’t always blow, but there is a trend that is mitigating that - declining costs in storage. Today the average cost to the consumer of lithium ion storage is dropping rapidly, and multiple sources point to a cost base of $100 per Mwh or lower by 2025. In that not too distant future it is reasonable to speculate that we will see non grid tied mining ops running 24/7 - 365, whilst capturing and storing a surplus & finding blocks with their batteries.
Bitcoin mining is ironically centralized. Although with closer observation, we can see that mining centralization is the result of an expeditious technology adoption curve. In approximately 4-5 years miners went from CPUs, to GPUs, FPGAs, and now of course ASIC’s. These changes each represented more than 10,000X improvements, which meant that miners were completely writing down their hardware within 4-6 months. So to mine at scale in the earlier years, you basically needed direct access to a chip factory and massive capital. It made more sense for a hardware manufacturers to run their own hardware than to sell it, and in turn mining became centralized. Although were now close to the top of the hardware improvement curve, and will perhaps see improvements of 2X every 2 or 3 years going forward. So, with that being said, hardware manufactures have it in their best interest to sell their rigs, being that they no longer have the “chip advantage”. The plateau of mining hardware innovation marks the advent of mining decentralization.
In the coming years allocating some or all electricity generated at the point of production to mine Bitcoin, will allow one to amortize an investment in renewables sooner than if the power was sold into the grid. Bitcoin will become the reserve currency of the internet and as such de-risk the capital deployed in renewables when operators of renewable energy assets allocate some or all of their power to secure the Bitcoin blockchain. Electricity production will also become more decentralized as localized production and mini grids become complimentary to larger legacy points of production, which will in turn support the decentralization of mining. Our future energy needs will be met using renewables, and the same renewable power that heats our homes and charges our cars, will underpin the Bitcoin blockchain and the internet of money.
submitted by kalapa108 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

J.P. Morgan Early Look at the Market – Fri 10.6.17 **PLEASE DO NOT FORWARD THIS DOCUMENT**

J.P. Morgan Early Look at the Market – Fri 10.6.17
*PLEASE DO NOT FORWARD THIS DOCUMENT*

Morning Levels

Trading Update

Top Headlines for Friday

Identifying risks – what could go wrong?

Macro Update

Calendar of events to watch for the week of Mon Oct 9

Catalysts – big events to watch over the coming months

Opinion/Interesting-but-not-immediately-impactful/intra-day boredom reading

Full catalyst list

  • Mon Oct 9 – China Caixin services PMI for Sept (Sun night/Mon morning)
  • Mon Oct 9 – German industrial production for Aug. 2amET.
  • Mon Oct 9 – earnings after the European close: LVMH.
  • Mon Oct 9 – Columbus Day holiday in the US (equities will be open while fixed income is closed).
  • Tues Oct 10 – German trade balance for Aug. 2amET.
  • Tues Oct 10 – analyst meetings: TECD, Santander, WDAY, WMT
  • Tues Oct 10 – PG shareholder meeting
  • Tues Oct 10 – earnings after the close: CUDA
  • Wed Oct 11 – US JOLTs report for Aug. 10amET.
  • Wed Oct 11 – Fed minutes from the Sept 20 meeting (2pmET).
  • Wed Oct 11 – analyst meetings: KR
  • Wed Oct 11 – earnings before the open: BLK, DAL, FAST, OZRK.
  • Thurs Oct 12 – Eurozone industrial production for Aug. 5amET.
  • Thurs Oct 12 – US PPI for Sept. 8:30amET.
  • Thurs Oct 12 – analyst meetings: BOX, HPQ, LSCC, WDC.
  • Thurs Oct 12 – earnings before the open: C, DPZ, JPM, LNN, Sky PLC, Tata Consultancy.
  • Thurs Oct 12 – earnings after the close: EXFO
  • Fri Oct 13 – China imports/exports for Sept (Thurs night/Fri morning)
  • Fri Oct 13 – US CPI for Sept. 8:30amET.
  • Fri Oct 13 – US retail sales for Sept. 8:30amET.
  • Fri Oct 13 – US Michigan Sentiment for Oct. 10amET.
  • Fri Oct 13 – US business inventories for Aug. 10amET.
  • Fri Oct 13 – analyst meetings: SAFM
  • Fri Oct 13 – earnings before the open: BAC, DRFG, FHN, FRC, JBHT, Man Group, PNC, WFC.
  • Mon Oct 16 – China CPI/PPI for Sept (Sun night/Mon morning)
  • Mon Oct 16 – Eurozone trade balance for Aug. 5amET.
  • Mon Oct 16 – earnings before the open: SCHW
  • Mon Oct 16 – earnings after the close: BRO, IEX, NFLX, Rio Tinto
  • Tues Oct 17 – Eurozone Sept auto registrations. 2amET.
  • Tues Oct 17 – German ZEW survey results for Oct. 5amET.
  • Tues Oct 17 – US import prices for Sept. 8:30amET.
  • Tues Oct 17 – US industrial production for Sept. 9:15amET.
  • Tues Oct 17 – US NAHB housing index for Oct. 10amET.
  • Tues Oct 17 – earnings before the open: BMI, CMA, CSX, GS, GWW, HOG, JNJ, MS, Pearson, PLD, Remy Cointreau, UNH
  • Tues Oct 17 – earnings after the close: ADTN, BHP, CP, CREE, IBM, LRCX, NAVI.
  • Wed Oct 18 – US housing starts for Sept. 8:30amET.
  • Wed Oct 18 – US building permits fro Sept. 8:30amET.
  • Wed Oct 18 – US Beige Book. 2pmET.
  • Wed Oct 18 – earnings before the open: ABT, Akzo Nobel, MTB, NTRS, USB
  • Wed Oct 18 – earnings after the close: AA, AXP, BHE, CCI, CCK, EBAY, LLNW, SLG, TCBI
  • Thurs Oct 19 – China Q3 GDP and Sept retail sales, IP, and FAI (Wed night/Thurs morning)
  • Thurs Oct 19 – US Leading Index for Sept. 10amET.
  • Thurs Oct 19 – earnings before the open: ADS, BBT, BK, DGX, DHR, GPC, KEY, Nestle, Pernod Ricard, PM, PPG, Publicis, RCI, Roche, SAP, SON, Thales, TRV, TSMC, TXT, Unilever, VZ, WBC.
  • Thurs Oct 19 – earnings after the close: ATHN, ISRG, LHO, MXIM, NCR, PBCT, WDFC, WERN.
  • Fri Oct 20 – US existing home sales for Sept. 10amET.
  • Fri Oct 20 – earnings before the open: Assa Abloy, BHGE, CFG, CLF, Daimler, DST, GE, GNTX, KSU, SLB, STI, SYF, TomTom, Volvo.
  • Mon Oct 23 – China Sept property prices (Sun night/Mon morning).
  • Mon Oct 23 – US Chicago Fed Activity Index for Sept. 8:30amET.
  • Mon Oct 23 – earnings before the open: HAL, HAS, ITW, KMB, STT, VFC
  • Mon Oct 23 – earnings after the close: ARNC, CR, OI
  • Tues Oct 24 – Eurozone flash PMIs for Oct. 4amET.
  • Tues Oct 24 – US flash PMIs for Oct. 9:45amET.
  • Tues Oct 24 – earnings before the open: AMTD, Anglo American, BASF, BIIB, CAT, CLB, CNC, FITB, GLW, GM, INFY, LLY, LMT, MAS, MCD, MMM, Novartis, PCAR, PHM, PNR, R, RF, SAH, SHW, SWK, WAT, WDR.
  • Tues Oct 24 – earnings after the close: AKAM, AMP, CMG, COF, DFS, ESRX, IRBT, T, TSS, TXN.
  • Wed Oct 25 – US durable goods for Sept. 8:30amET.
  • Wed Oct 25 – US FHFA home price index for Aug. 9amET.
  • Wed Oct 25 – US new home sales for Sept. 10amET.
  • Wed Oct 25 – earnings before the open: ALK, ALLY, ANTM, Antofagasta, AOS, BA, BAX, Dassault Systemes, DPS, FCX, FLIR, Fresnillo, HBAN, Heineken, IP, IR, KO, LEA, LH, Lloyds Banking Group, NDAQ, NSC, NYCB, Peugeot, TMO, TUP, V, WBA, WEC.
  • Wed Oct 25 – earnings after the close: ABX, ACGL, AFL, AMGN, CLGX, DLR, FFIV, FTI, KIM, LSTR, NOW, ORLY, PKG, PLXS, RJF, TSCO, UNM, VAR, XLNX.
  • Thurs Oct 26 – US wholesale inventories for Sept. 8:30amET.
  • Thurs Oct 26 – US advance goods trade balance for Sept. 8:30amET.
  • Thurs Oct 26 – US pending home sales for Sept. 10amET.
  • Thurs Oct 26 – earnings before the open: Aixtron, ALLE, ALV, Anheuser Busch, APD, Bayer, BMY, BSX, BWA, CCMP, CELG, CHTR, CMCSA, CME, Deutsche Bank, ENTG, EQT, F, HLT, MMC, NEM, Nokia, ODFL, Santander, Schneider Electric, UNP, UPS, WM, XEL.
  • Thurs Oct 26 – earnings after the close: AIV, ATEN, CB, CDNS, EXPE, FLEX, FTNT, GILD, GOOG, HIG, INTC, LPLA, MSFT, NATI, PFG, SYK, VDSI, VRSN.
  • Fri Oct 27 – China Sept industrial profits (Thurs night/Fri morning).
  • Fri Oct 27 – US Q3 GDP, personal consumption, and core PCE for Q3. 8:30amET.
  • Fri Oct 27 – US Michigan Confidence numbers for Oct. 10amET.
  • Fri Oct 27 – earnings before the open: B, MRK, PSX, SC, TRU, Volkswagen, WY, XOM.
  • Mon Oct 30 – US personal income/spending and PCE for Sept. 8:30amET.
  • Mon Oct 30 – US Dallas Fed index for Oct. 10:30amET.
  • Mon Oct 30 – analyst meetings: CSX
  • Mon Oct 30 – earnings before the open: HSBC
  • Mon Oct 30 – earnings after the close: AVB, CGNX, RE, RTEC, VNO
  • Tues Oct 31 – US Employment Cost Index for Q3. 8:30amET.
  • Tues Oct 31 – US Case-Shiller home price index for Aug. 9amET.
  • Tues Oct 31 – US Chicago PMI for Oct. 9:45amET.
  • Tues Oct 31 – US Conference Board Sentiment readings for Oct. 10amET.
  • Tues Oct 31 – earnings before the open: ADM, AET, Airbus, AMT, Barclays, BNP, CMI, ECL, GGP, K, MA, OSK, PFE, XYL.
  • Tues Oct 31 – earnings after the close: APC, CHRW, CXO, WFT, X
  • Wed Nov 1 – US ADP jobs report for Oct. 8:15amET.
  • Wed Nov 1 – US Markit Manufacturing PMI for Oct. 9:45amET.
  • Wed Nov 1 – US Manufacturing ISM for Oct. 10amET.
  • Wed Nov 1 – US construction spending report for Sept. 10amET.
  • Wed Nov 1 – US auto sales for Oct.
  • Wed Nov 1 – FOMC meeting decision. 2pmET.
  • Wed Nov 1 – earnings before the open: AGN, APO, CLX, EL, GRMN, HFC, Novo Nordisk, ORBK, Standard Chartered, TAP, TRI.
  • Wed Nov 1 – earnings after the close: ALL, BHF, BXP, CAVM, CSGS, FB, LNC, MANT, MET, MUSA, OXY, PRU, QCOM, ULTI, XPO.
  • Thurs Nov 2 – US nonfarm productivity and unit labor costs for Q3. 8:30amET.
  • Thurs Nov 2 – earnings before the open: ADP, AN, BCE, CI, Credit Suisse, DISCA, H, ICE, Royal Dutch Shell, Sanofi, Swiss Re, WRK.
  • Thurs Nov 2 – earnings after the close: AAPL, AIG, CBS, CRUS, FLR, HLF, RMAX, SBUX, UNIT.
  • Fri Nov 3 – US jobs report for Oct. 8:30amET.
  • Fri Nov 3 – US trade balance for Sept. 8:30amET.
  • Fri Nov 3 – US factory orders and durable goods orders for Sept. 10amET.
  • Fri Nov 3 – US non-manufacturing ISM for Oct. 10amET.
  • Tues Nov 7 – US JOLTs jobs report for Sept. 10amET.
  • Tues Nov 7 – US consumer credit for Sept. 3pmET.
  • Thurs Nov 9 – US wholesale trade sales/inventories for Sept. 10amET.
  • Fri Nov 10 – US Michigan Confidence preliminary numbers for Nov. 10amET.
  • Tues Nov 14 – US PPI for Oct. 8:30amET.
  • Wed Nov 15 – US CPI for Oct. 8:30amET.
  • Wed Nov 15 – US Empire Manufacturing for Nov. 8:30amET.
  • Wed Nov 15 – US retail sales for Oct. 8:30amET.
  • Wed Nov 15 – US business inventories for Sept. 10amET.
  • Thurs Nov 16 – US import prices for Oct. 8:30amET.
  • Thurs Nov 16 – US industrial production for Oct. 9:15amET.
  • Thurs Nov 16 – US NAHB housing index for Nov. 10amET.
  • Fri Nov 17 – US housing starts and building permits for Oct. 8:30amET.
  • Mon Nov 20 – US Leading Index for Oct. 10amET.
  • Tues Nov 21 – US existing home sales for Oct. 10amET.
  • Wed Nov 22 – US durable goods for Oct. 8:30amET.
  • Wed Nov 22 – US final Michigan Confidence numbers for Nov. 10amET.
  • Wed Nov 22 – FOMC 11/1 meeting minutes. 2pmET.
  • Fri Nov 24 – US flash PMIs for Nov. 9:45amET.
J.P. Morgan Market Intelligence is a product of the Institutional Equities Sales and Trading desk of J.P. Morgan Securities LLC and the intellectual property thereof. It is not a product of the Research Department and is intended for distribution to institutional and professional customers only and is not intended for retail customer use. It may not be reproduced, redistributed or transmitted, in whole or in part, without J.P. Morgan’s consent. Any unauthorized use is strictly prohibited.
submitted by SIThereAndThere to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Cocos-BCX:The decentralized gaming application & crypto assets creation platform

Cocos-BCX:The decentralized gaming application & crypto assets creation platform

I. Project Overview

Cocos-BCX is a platform used for the development, operation, management and transfer of decentralized applications and in-application assets on the blockchain ecosystem. The platform mainly includes three function modules:
(1)The application development framework that supports multiple operating systems and various blockchain environments.
(2)Completely scripted, componentized and data-driven application development tools;
(3)An improved blockchain system, which is oriented to high performance applications and based on graphene technology framework, and its related functional components.
Cocos-BCX can allow developers to perform programming, debugging, and publishing of decentralized applications oriented to the blockchain environment, and hybrid architecture applications. Meanwhile, the platform integrates the distributed user account system, wallet and digital asset circulation platform based on the blockchain, which can realize the permanent saving and cross-chain use of in-application assets.

II. Project evaluation

(一) Market analysis

1. Market conditions | 8 points

The organizing pattern of productivity dominated by governments in some areas or industrial domains is apt to change in the context of bottlenecks existing for global scientific and technological progress, rising resource consumption, an aging population, and intensified geopolitical conflicts. In particular, in 2008, when Nakamot published his thesis "Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System", discussions on blockchain and digital currency have gradually extended from technological aspects to economic, social and political, and other fields. The general public have begun to pay close attention to the impact of blockchain on social development as well as the role of digital currency in the world economy. Based on the decentralized characteristics of the blockchain and the vibrant vitality of the digital economy, the general public has enough confidence to predict that the decentralized "digital assets" will be a sweeping trend in the future, and will derive new business models and social values.
At the same time, in the development process of decentralized applications of different types, the game industry enjoys unique development advantages, because the game's production mode is the most sophisticated, enjoys the highest degree in terms of commercialization, and is one of the scenarios with the most profound foundation in terms of developers and users.
u Analysis: The game field has a huge room for development, which is highly consistent with the characteristics of the blockchain, and accords with the future development tendency of the digital economy.
The digital asset economy model carried by the project through the blockchain technology will assetize the content produced by the developer, enable the developer to continue reaping benefits during the use, management and transfer of his assets, and provide him with a convenient, decentralized game distribution channel; meanwhile, it helps players to transform the data formed by time and energy as well as the props they obtain as a result of their consumption into the assets that can be safely stored and circulated, offering players the right to manage and commercialize them.

2. Competition | 8 points

Since the last century till now, owing to the sustained efforts and promotion by a variety of IT technology game enterprises, the national and even global online game market is developing by leaps and bounds. If there is no systematic risks, such as policy regulation, vicious incidents and other factors, there will be no smooth and endless development momentum unless something unexpected happens. However, an objective analysis reveals that the current online game market is still dominated by IT technology companies, and even in a controlled and monopolized development, which, of course, also brings substantial profits, such as Tencent, Blizzard Tech.
u Analysis: It can be predicted that the Cocos-BCX project will hardly have any direct competitors in the strict sense for the time being, but will encounter a marginal pressure competitive environment from two dimensions. In summary, the classical IT game companies at home and abroad are massive in size and have obvious capital advantages. However, the Cocos-BCX project has an advanced philosophy and cutting edge technology, and thereby enjoys first-mover advantages for a breakthrough; The blockchain game project of the same business is currently marked by wide participation and generic applicability. But in comparison, the Cocos-BCX game industry has such advantages as a salient background, special project orientation and sophisticated development in technical modules, and therefore has greater development potential.

(二) Token Status

1. Token situation | 6 points

(1) Basic situation of Token
Token name: COCOS
Total tokens in circulation: 100 billion
Consensus mechanism: DPOS
(2) Token usage and allocation
Part I 82%: Cocos-BCX is used for the platform community construction in various ways, including but not limited to the witness' block reward, incentives for platform ecological developers, global community construction, marketing and promotion, industry alliances, eco-investment, research, financial and legal compliance. The use of this part of Cocos-BCX includes swapping by means of the consensus work contributions, free gifts, gifts in exchange for service, and gifts in exchange for other tokens, etc.
Part II, 18%: Cocos-BCX is intended as incentives for the sponsoring team of the project. The incentive part will set up a locking mechanism, which will be issued and unlocked one-third at the end of each year after Token generation, and the issuance will be completed within three years.

https://preview.redd.it/sahtuohmtb821.jpg?width=684&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=324cbde0e5911f219649d8a64470dc3d70ecdb7f
u Analysis: The use of Token is mainly divided into two parts, among which, 82% is used for project development and construction. The remaining 18%, which has a locked position mechanism, is intended for team incentive and construction. The use design is rather rational, but the team part is slightly higher. Given that the industry is in the initial stage of development, it is of great importance to seize the first opportunity and acquire early traffic users. It is suggested that the proportion of Token used by the team be reduced slightly, which is more conducive to the long-term development of the project. It should be noted that the original holding distribution of Token has not been queried via the official channel, while this link for the conventional blockchain project are basically disclosed. Meanwhile, from the standpoint of ordinary investors, Token’s original holding ratio is also one of the important parameters for its investment.

2. Ecological cycle | 8 points

(1)The Token (COCOS) positioning of the platform: circulation media and governance proof in eco-economic activities
COCOS not only serves as a value exchange carrier and community participation proof for Cocox-BCX, but its orientation as a basic pricing Token is likely to play a critical role in the digital asset ecosystem. With the continuous development of the industry, a large quantity of decentralized digital assets will exist in multiple blockchain ecosystems according to different standards in the future, and the value existing in asset pricing media transcending the chain ecology will be infinitely magnified.
, which is specifically manifested in that developers and users can evaluate, compare, trade and manage digital assets of different chain ecosystems, worldview content, and technical standards based on COCOS. Meanwhile, as a primary and basic pricing medium, COCOS is positioned to become the necessary conditions for the blockchain industry to develop and trade financial products and derivatives of digital assets in the future.
(2)Basic use model of Token (COCOS)
Ø Value exchange medium within the platform ecosystem;
Ø Entrusted consensus equity share representative of the Cocos-BCX public blockchain;
Ø The reference and basis for the measurement of the participation in and contribution to the platform community.
(3)How to obtain Token (COCOS)
Ø Value creation: It includes the contribution of the behavior of creating digital assets, that is, developing games, making props, etc.
Ø Platform contribution reward: Users who contribute to the Cocos-BCX community is entitled to COCOS;
Ø Market transaction: Selling the prop assets obtained in the game to get COCOS;
Ø Behavioral incentives: Various effective behaviors within the Cocos-BCX platform, community and platform games will be converted into COCOS
according to a certain contribution degree.
u Analysis: The use model, scenario application, acquisition method, market orientation, etc. for the Token ecosystem design are all well deliberated, to be verified by the market.
The ecosystem design of the Token project not only takes the macroscopic use model and scenario application, but also gives a detailed description of the acquisition method. Another point that must be pointed out is that it has a clear market orientation and future prospect as soon as the design begins, therefore, in general the Token ecosystem design is well-considered and far-sighted. However, for the volatile blockchain market, the crux depends on whether the ecological design philosophy can keep pace with the times, which is very essential. In a word, in the face of massive uncertainties, it needs to be finally verified by the market.

(三) Team member

1. Founder | 8 points


https://preview.redd.it/6xhhabgntb821.jpg?width=200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f8b038f4b4016724adf160c180c1eab3fb86aa1b
Haozhi Chen
China's renowned Internet serial entrepreneur, and has successively led and participated in the creation of Joyo.com, Xcar.com.cn, and cdn.yeeyan.org since 1999, and founded Chukong Technology in 2009. Chukong is a leading game development and distribution enterprise in China and a major maintainer and supporter of the Cocos-BCX global open source game engine and developer community.

https://preview.redd.it/t5siu9cotb821.jpg?width=200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=262123cfe0f40dbc87177d62ff57bd9e270a12cf
Xiaolong Yang
With over 14 years of experience in technology entrepreneurship and investment, he once co-founded China's leading entertainment social networking company. As an investor, he once worked for China's leading private equity fund, during which period, he led and participated in investment projects totalling over 1 billion US dollars, and realized the exit of some projects at home and abroad. His interests and expertise mainly concentrate on information technology of the global primary market and secondary market in the later stage, and macro multiple asset category investment, and has a profound understanding of the financial market mechanism and asset pricing. He is also an investment partner in China's major technology investment fund and provides counselling for Chinese and American hedge funds, venture capital funds and large enterprises.
u Analysis: Chen Haozhi, as a founder, has rich experience in the game industry, and enjoys widespread networking and abundant resources in the industry as being one of the early Internet entrepreneurs; Another founder, Yang Xiaolong, has a strong experience in technology venture capital investment, and has the expertise for global investment layout. On the whole, two co-founders have a prominent advantage in overall industry background and integrating resources.

2. Founding team | 8 points


https://preview.redd.it/15ytlu4ptb821.png?width=877&format=png&auto=webp&s=26839b00d4921c925431e8f0be337c9828e0eb49
Kevin Yin: An early contributor of CocosChina community, NOI winner, and ACM guest. A senior developer of blockchain, and having years of experience in compilation and distributed computing. An investor of the blockchain technology.
Jane Jin: Responsible for CocosChina community, the "Aipuworks" incubator, etc., and an expert of the Techincal Committee for Blockchain, China Software Industry Association. Bachelor of Economics, Zhejiang Gongshang University, and mini-EMBA of Tsinghua University. He once served important functions in "Fortune Global 500" including Lucent, Nortel, NSN, Nokia, Intel and other multinational companies in the marketing, sales, executive and developer relationship domain.
James Jeon: Responsible for the business development strategy and implementation of the project's South Korean section. From 2012 to 2015, he served as CEO of Gurum Company, a South Korean subsidiary of Chukong Technologies, earning an annual revenue of over $30 million from the scratch for the South Korean company and leading the South Korean subsidiary in going public successfully.
Frederick Lim: Responsible for the business development strategy and implementation of the project's South Korean section. From 2014 to 2015, he served as co-CEO of Gurum Company, and was once the director of the Strategic Investment Department of Hyundai Group, responsible for investment in Internet, communication, telecommunications and other fields. He is a doctor of Engineering Technology, Sungkyunkwan University, South Korea.
Hirokuni Fujita: originally head of the Japanese subsidiary of Chukong Technologies. He graduated from Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, The University of Tokyo, majoring in Interdisciplinary Cultural Studies.
Jason: preacher of the Cocos-BCX community and meanwhile, senior manager of the Cocos 2d-x global community. He started to program on the Commodore-64 computer when he was 8. In addition to developing the community, he was keen on studying mathematics, finance, C++ and improving his Chinese proficiency.
Qinzhou Wang: Since entering the game industry in 2009, he has worked in the brand market in ZOL. Com. CN, Howell Expo, host of ChinaJoy, and is responsible for the brand market in Chukong Technologies.
u Analysis: The special technological talent construction of the team technicians needs to be further strengthened. At present, there is a blockchain technician. The game background and the advantages of the international architecture building enjoy prominent advantages, and there are sufficient team members on the strategic level and in the aspect of ecological construction. It is worth mentioning that team building is stable, and there is a high level of consensus among team members, which is conducive to the robust development of the project.
One member of the founding team has experience in the blockchain project development, that is, Chief Technical Officer, who is a senior blockchain developer. He has many years of experience in compiling and distributed computing, and is also a technology investor of blockchain.
In the early stage, owing to the demand of the game industry in the Japanese and Korean markets, Japanese and Korean market leaders were specially arranged in the early team structure of Chukong Technologies. In particular, due to the prosperity and popularity of the game industry in the Korean market, two co-leaders were specially arranged for the Korea market, responsible for strategic and investment issues respectively.
Consultant Team | 8 points

https://preview.redd.it/7d9dp2wptb821.jpg?width=558&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=39fd3b0aa342403493df250d99c09472c48e0c72
Zhe Wang: Founder of the Cocos engine, and CEO of Xiamen Yaji Software Co., Ltd. He graduated from Department of Electronics, Nanjing University, and later studied a postgraduate program at Department of Management Science, Xiamen University. He created the Cocos engine in 2011, which currently has 1.1 million registered developers worldwide and 300,000 monthly active developers in over 200 countries and regions in the world. The Cocos engine has arrested the attention of platform vendors at home and abroad, and has established a long-term cooperative partnership with Microsoft, Google, ARM, Intel, Qualcomm, Samsung, Huawei and Tencent, etc.
Edith Yeung: One of some "Silicon Valley's Must Meet" investors as covered in Inc magazine. She is the head of 500 Startups, Silicon Valley's famous venture capital company and incubator in Greater China, and meanwhile, manages a Mobile Collective fund worth tens of millions of dollars. She has invested in over 40 mobile Internet, VR, AR and AI start-ups, including Hooked (App store's No. 1 reading App), DayDayCook (one of Asia's largest food communities), Fleksy (acquired by Pinterest), Human (acquired by Mapbox), AISense and so on.
u Analysis: The consultant team has obvious advantages in technological achievements, rich experience in technology innovation investment and incubation experience for startups.
The consultant team consists of a Maker-oriented technical talent and two venture capital managers with a senior venture capital background, among whom, Wang Zhe, technical consultant, graduated from Department of Electronics, Nanjing University and CEO of Xiamen Yaji Software. Wang is the founder of Cocos-BCX engine. At present, the Cocos engine has 1.1 million registered developers and 300,000 monthly active developers in over 200 countries and regions worldwide.

(四) Tech Analysis

1. Tech highlights | 9 points

(1) Smart contract system which can be updated iteratively: The smart contract system, represented by Ethereum, is not subject to modification once its definition is published, making it difficult to meet the volatile demands of market. Therefore, an iterative smart contract system is designed to address this pain spot.
(2) Prop circulation platform: Unlike conventional game transaction platform, Cocos-BCX's decentralized digital asset circulation platform does not have intermediary agencies. Players can complete the transfer and purchase of non-homogeneous assets, including "game gold coins" and prop assets acquired in the game on the prop circulation platform. In the whole process of transfer, the platform will adopt smart contract for automatic matching to help users complete the transfer process more efficiently.
(3) Game interactive operation environment:
Based on the judgment of the operation environment characteristics of blockchain games in the future, Cocos-BCX has designed a set of integrated operation environment that accommodates various types of APPs, as well as the supporting interoperability interface. Combined with COCOS Creator, it simplifies the process of docking game programs and blockchain, making intra-chain interaction transparent to developers, and allowing conventional game developers to develop or migrate blockchain game without a threshold.
(4) Mapping gateway that supports multi-chain and asset riveting:
Cocos-BCX provides a set of mapping gateways used for the automatic mapping of game gold coins and props. Under the unified value measurement system, it realizes the smooth transition of different in-chain game content and different platform content. The content that can be used for mapping includes game gold coins, game equipment data, etc.
(5) Transaction authentication mechanism that prevents BP/developers from cheating:
BP, as the core of transaction processing and communication of the whole network, can know the processing result of the latest transaction prior to general nodes. Therefore, BP enjoys a priority for information with timeliness or confidentiality
, as compared with general nodes, so it has a cheating potential in terms of
information acquisition. To address the drawbacks of this technical link, five modular confrontation mechanisms has been specially designed to hold the likelihood of BP/developer cheating at bay.
(6) Economies Principle Design of Cocos-BCX:
The Cocos-BCX platform carries the game assets value created by developers by providing a complete set of functional components including the underlying public blockchain, digital property management, and exchanges. Its technology and governance structure design, based on the graphene standard, has the economic attributes corresponding to the DPoS consensus mechanism.
u Analysis: There are a multiplicity of technical highlights in that the overall technology construction shows characteristics such as rigid logic and prominent modularity, and various technical solutions and mechanisms with a strong pertinence have been put forward.
Based on the market pain spots of the game industry, and combined with the development opportunities of blockchain technology, the Cocos-BCX project puts forward a vision system to create consistence between the content producer and consumer in the digital world. In view of the initial intention of the project and the relatively profound background of the game industry, the overall technical structure design of the project is highly targeted and has a strong logic, which can be described as closely connected with each other. Based on the large technical framework system, each technical link and organization also has a strong sense of target and logical gene, and on this basis, many modular and modified technical programs or mechanisms have been proposed. However, it is worth noting that the synergy of a series of highlight technologies remains to be verified and examined. Meanwhile, attention should also be paid to the practicability and rationality.

2. Impossible Triangle | 7 points

(1) Decentralization
Ø Low fork risk: Cocos-BCX uses the DPoS consensus mechanism, which does not require miners to use mining machines for mining, and thereby it can effectively avoid the impact of centralized computing on the entire basechain, which in turn reduces a low fork risk. Under the DPoS mechanism, if a witness wants to fork by voting, it is necessary to guarantee that over one third of the witnesses violate this mechanism at the same time.
Ø Improved DPOS consensus mechanism: The consensus layer of the Cocos-BCX test chain adopts the DPoS consensus algorithm. The advantage characteristics of the improved edition DPOS are as follows: all active witnesses have the same block predefined probability as the witnesses' predefined algorithm in the DPoS consensus algorithm, which ensures that the block probability of all witnesses is consistent with the block reward.
Ø Lightweight node: In Cocos-BCX design, lightweight node is essentially an environment with chain interoperability. Unlike the whole node, the lightweight node does not require to synchronize the whole network data. Instead, it needs the contract information and environment data required for synchronous running. This design can greatly reduce the data volume and synchronization time required for node synchronization, enabling the in-chain game terminal software to have a capacity which is actually used and a plausible time cost.
(2) Security
Ø Player autonomy and asset security: Because of the open and transparent characteristics of the blockchain network, the digital asset information obtained by players in the game can be viewed through the blockchain.
Ø Guarantee by modern cryptography: Modern cryptography is a technology based on mathematics. Currently, it has been widely used in many industries in the Internet domain. Common symmetric encryption technologies include AES encryption used for WiFi, and asymmetric encryption algorithms (public and private key cryptography) RSA, ECC, etc., among which, ECC (Elliptic Curves Cryptography) is an encryption algorithm commonly used in the blockchain field.
Ø A transaction verification mechanism that prevents BP/developers from cheating: BP enjoys a priority compared with general nodes, so it has the probability to cheat in terms of information acquisition. Therefore, the BCX program has designed a set of transaction execution, messaging, and operating mechanisms to address the possible links that allow cheating by BP and developers.
Ø Iterative updated smart contract system: It can provide logical updating and loophole repair for the in-chain game smart contract, thus ensuring the security and timeliness of the smart contract.
(3) Expandability:
Ø Strong expandability of the top-level design of the project
The expandability of Cocos-BCX is powerful, which is specifically shown in a decentralized game production and an overall solution to the game economy operation established by means of the game engine, development environment and Cocos-BCX game chain.

https://preview.redd.it/xm5n7esrtb821.jpg?width=1207&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c3daa5d913560c0e8143c0635374596566bdbfc9
A business ecosystem is constructed based on the above overall solution, with the purpose of connecting the global game ecosystem. The main ecological links include developers, users, creative content, key ecological links and blockchain system, etc.

https://preview.redd.it/h4ssn41ttb821.jpg?width=1276&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ca6244d17b9745ce41b5be235f75a39f8a8af051
Ø Expanded design of specific technologies and mechanisms
  1. Multi-platform game integration running environment: This platform is mainly characterized by four features, consistent and perfect chain interoperability interface, downward transparent accepting mode, encapsulated atomic operation and multi-platform compatibility.
  2. Interactive interface of blockchain:
Cocos-BCX provides a chain-interactive development environment so that developers can easily interact with the chain through this set of environment. Meanwhile, its blockchain interactive development environment provides development components compatible with multiple working platforms, including SDK for the Android and iOS system, javascript libraries for front-terminal web applications, and python and PHP libraries for back-terminal applications.
u Analysis: The expandability of the project's "impossible triangle" shows the most prominently, and the decentralized attribute is the weakest, whose security is between the two. However, the project takes the three into consideration in terms of the technical mechanism and program function. Yet, the focus is different.
The project interprets the “impossible triangle” by means of thinking and design that focus on technical aspects and key issues.
The security level first guarantees the assets security and freedom of the ecosystem participants, and meanwhile ensures the rationality and security of the overall framework design, and finally takes its system updating and safe recovery into consideration mainly by means of player autonomy, modern cryptography and transaction verification mechanism that prevents BP/developers from cheating.

3. Development difficulty | 8 points

According to the summary of the project white paper, the blockchain game can be generally divided into four developmental stages.
(1)Using the homogeneous assets for the settlement of the game "gold coins";
(2)Free conversion of the game "gold coins" and props;
(3)In-chain operation of critical rules;
(4)Overall in-chain operation of the game
The game in-chain operation is the final form of the industry. Based on the above summary, Cocos-BCX proposes the future development prospect, mainly represented in seven aspects:
(1)Players having a lightweight full-node environment;
(2)The service stack operating in the blockchain environment;
(3)The game engine as one of the node infrastructures;
(4)Providing a joint development/debugging environment including engine, visual IDE, and chain network interactive interface;
(5)a set of asynchronous consensus tasks between nodes to ensure the trustworthiness of the engine environment. This consensus may be based on the discrimination of feature code of
the engine critical function's target code
(6) The game code (contract) is executed by the secure virtual machine controlled by the engine, and the key numerical calculation of the contract may adopt
the “Trusted Execution Environment” scheme, which is executed independently of the main part of the contract;
(7) The key process of the contract is witnessed by the adjacent or related nodes (like players in a copy).
u Analysis: The project covers a multiplicity of technical characteristics and functional mechanisms. The overall development is rather difficult. However, it is highly practicable in terms of performance.
At the initial stage of the project, four stages of blockchain game development were analyzed. After combing, the highest prospect was proposed, implicating to create a complete multi-platform game running environment, which can provide game developers with convenience in developing blockchain games and a perfect ecological environment to the maximum, while bringing game users a brand-new gaming experience and a game form that transcends the previous ones.
Based on the initial project prospect, numerous technical goals and functional modules are listed, indicating that the technical support for the project vision is rather effective. However, as public blockchain of the industry application basis, it encompasses various technical applications and functional modules. Comparatively speaking, the development difficulty is rather big. Meanwhile, as released by the white paper, the theoretical throughput of the Cocos-BCX test chain can reach up to 100,000 tps. The actual throughput is approximate to 3,500 tps, and the block time is 3 seconds, that is, the information broadcast across the entire network is completed once every 3 seconds. It can be seen from the project technical performance data that it has a relatively strong realistic significance. Therefore, on the whole, the project puts forward a sizeable technical challenge, and in the meantime has a reasonable practicability, therefore, it is worthwhile to look forward to!

(五) Project status

1. Product | 7 points

(1)System-level products
Ø The application development framework that supports multiple operating systems and various blockchain environments.
Ø Completely scripted, componentized and data-driven application development tools;
Ø An improved blockchain system, which is oriented to high performance applications and based on graphene technology framework, and its related functional components.
Ø Supporting non-homogeneous wallets;
Ø A blockchain browser that supports the contract event subscription;
Ø Supporting the third-party non-homogeneous asset exchanges;
Ø Supporting the blockchain game developed by a third party;
Ø Cross-chain asset acceptance gateway.
(2) Functional products
Ø De-intermediary assets (prop) operation interface;
Ø Paradigms of non-homogeneous assets circulation platform;
Ø Supporting player autonomy and blacksmith shop mechanism;
Ø Visual IDE (including visual editing of the game program and contract);
Ø Complete wallet, user system and blockchain browser;
Ø Smart contract system that allows iterative updating.
u Analysis: According to the information released on the official website of the project, the timeline shows that the Cocos-BCX main chain has started the closed beta test in the third quarter of 2018. Based on the obvious characteristics of the project technology module, Cocos-BCX has launched two series of projects, namely, system-level and function-level products, including development frameworks, blacksmith shop mechanisms tailored to various operations and multiple environment.

2. Code updating | 2 points

u Analysis: It is learned from official communication that the source code of the project has not been made public for the purpose of keeping the project's trade secret confidential. It is planned that the project will be open source in the future after the ecological and system products become gradually stabilized.

3. Completion status | 8 points

u Analysis: The project has formulated an overall development plan and recent work tasks, and at the same time it has demonstrated its strong vitality through weekly report, timeline and development broadcast.
According to the official channel inquiry, the project has formulated the Roadmap for the 2018 key milestone quarter and the recent detailed work task breakdown plan, and the project has a very complete display system featuring three major development progresses:
(1) Weekly reporting system
(2) Project timeline
(3) Development broadcast
Through the Roadmap+ work breakdown + 3 major system model, the project's development trajectory and dynamics have been display in a basically three-dimensional, spatial, meticulous and detailed manner, and in the meantime, the powerful execution and self-vitality of the project have been also displayed.

(六) Institution enabling (Investors)

1. Cooperative institutions | 9 points


https://preview.redd.it/w7g2hjxttb821.jpg?width=1036&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=da35e0e9e453271300bdd8e6574e8c3a61e70225
u Analysis: Cocos-BCX has a wide margin for cooperation, and its cooperation institutions are not only numerous, but also mainly of leading and quality enterprises in the industry.
The cooperative institutions include HelloEOS, NEO, NEBULAS (chain), Loom, IMEOS.ONE, Kingsoft Cloud and SlowMist Technology, etc.
NEO is one of the earliest blockchain projects in China. It was officially created in 2014 and was open sourced in real time in Github in June 2015. Since its establishment, the NEO team has experienced ups and downs of the blockchain industry. This project can be said to be a veteran project in the industry. NEO combines with a series of technologies, such as point-to-point network, Byzantine fault tolerance, digital certificate, smart contract, superconducting transactions, and cross-chain interoperability protocols, to perform rapid, efficient, secure, and legitimate smart management of assets.

2. Investment institutions | 9 points


https://preview.redd.it/s2td22eutb821.jpg?width=1273&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ffcd40c67fcd16739b16207e364b91e98180ffd8
u Analysis: There are numerous investment institutions, many of which are Class I institutions, with a strong institutional strength.
Investment institutions include NGC, Binance, INB Capital, Dfund, 500 Startups, BlockVC, OK Blockchain Capital, Yisu Capital, Xiong'an Capital, ONTology, FreeS FUND, NODE Capital, Consensus Capital, Hash Capital, NEO Capital, Ticker Capital , ContractVC, Junwu Capital, Candy Capital, Hofan VC, BMETA Capital, BYTE Capital, Nimble Capital, InsurFun, BA Capital, Consensus Lab, TOKENMANIA, Byzantium Capital, etc.
The rest investment institutions are also well-known. For example, DFUND was founded by Zhao Dong, a well-known figure in the digital currency domain in July 2017. Yisu Capital is engaged in the early investment and project cooperation, focusing on blockchain technology and big data intelligence analysis, and other domains.

(七) Drawing attention | 6 points


https://preview.redd.it/fa3k060vtb821.png?width=605&format=png&auto=webp&s=ca3b6a4b185c81bbafb5bccb571a43b9bbaba148
Project content description

https://preview.redd.it/y6w1f3hvtb821.png?width=796&format=png&auto=webp&s=8f3b2116d63a77f839a1e18787dd986c34a573a3
u Analysis: The game user and developer group are highly active, and meanwhile the publicity of the media and news client are enhanced. The overall heat and operation and maintenance thinking are well-balanced. However, the current community operation link is relatively weak, and requires improvement in the follow-up.
Presently, the number of community fans is small. Therefore, the operation link of project content is rather weak. However, media communication and news broadcasting, two links of propaganda and promotion efforts, are quite effective, basically realizing a timely and real-time posting of the latest developments of the project. Although the media and news client are widely disseminated, their social interaction is relatively weak. The social platform has its own communication limitations. However, it is highly involved in interaction.

(VIII) Social Response | 7.78

User A | Point: 7.9
Comment: From the perspective of production mode and commercialization, this game is the most sophisticated. So I think this project has a very extensive application scenario, especially for developers and users.
User B | Point: 7.0
Comment: Currently, it seems that the game industry is greatly influenced by macro policies. Tencent's recent performance is a case in point. However, the project orientation is quite good.
User C | Point: 8.0
Comment: The technical advantages of the project are particularly prominent, and it also seizes the development opportunities of the blockchain. However, ultimately it needs to undergo the test of the market.
User D | Point: 9.0
Comment: First of all, COCOS has a large number of developers, solid underlying technology and reliable team work, which is worth looking forward to. Of course, great "undertaking" calls for enormous input, especially in technology. The way is arduous and long. Come on.
User E | Point: 7.0
Comment:
As a game practitioner, I would talk something about Cocos-BCX project: when the concept of blockchain game is put forward for everyone to consider, at this stage, it is no doubt that the dimension (type) of the game is developed from the perspective of "inheritance" and "tracing its very origin". If the Cocos-BCX project can be applied by game developers in terms of "development kit", is easy to learn and use, and allows the mobile game developers to shift to the development of blockchain games without a threshold, then the game dimensions and users can be further expanded. In a word, phenomenal games of blockchain games need the support of Cocos-BCX and the efforts of developers, both of which are indispensable. It is hoped that the team will make great efforts in development and publicity. "Coin friends" may not need to know how the game is developed, but they will certainly care about its future space. Such evaluation can only be called prospects and expectations. It remains to be determined whether the project adopts capital operation or the mode as solid as the old engine of COCOS till the project is landed.

III. Evaluation Summary

The project orientation is accurate, and the team has a strong lineup. It merits pointing out that its technical strength and model architecture design are particularly prominent, and there are an array of investment and cooperation institutions with strong strength. However, at present, the code has not been open sourced and the community operation and maintenance is deficient. The information disclosure of the Token link is not particularly perfect, and individual investors may care much about it. The Roadmap of the project development is all too simple. These are the deficiencies of the project development at the current moment.
submitted by ONETOPGlobal to u/ONETOPGlobal [link] [comments]

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